MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x60168e4fd6662fe57c66b6a69501c54656ae6cee05083228cf8788bf460ed1e3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,096
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,141
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,096 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed No | 58c | 8,208$4,726 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,481.13 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Yes | 43c | 3,018$1,293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,292.95 | 776 | 47.4%368 W · 408 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6e…be00backed Yes | 42c | 2,611$1,097 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,096.58 | 73 | 53.4%39 W · 34 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf83d…367dbacked Yes | 43c | 1,373$585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585.46 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e64…336dbacked Yes | 43c | 831.08$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.36 | 449 | 45.4%204 W · 245 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Yes | 43c | 700$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed No | 55c | 616$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.05 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 43c | 228.86$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.66 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 43c | 129.2$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.56 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5323…326abacked Yes | 48c | 120.98$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.07 | 72 | 34.7%25 W · 47 L | -10.8wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Yes | 43c | 69.32$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.81 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1f…9136backed No | 57c | 63.86$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.46 | 138 | 50%69 W · 69 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fcb…7802backed No | 58c | 63.79$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.79 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +4.2wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7f…bb6dbacked Yes | 44c | 55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 147 | 51.7%76 W · 71 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked No | 79c | 52$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.87 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.25 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca2b…3489backed Yes | 45c | 49.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.33 | 292 | 42.5%124 W · 168 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5798…8f26backed No | 58c | 32.55$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.67 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 53cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce3…b865backed No | 58c | 23.92$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Piratesthis page
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh PiratesPittsburgh Pirates won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 13.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 17.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 6.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-3.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-4.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.