MLB · resolved market
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9b86b6c56b5a2b0c4e9a9594124c096013a1fc186beecfc69ce72fb547e97397
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,415
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,430
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,415 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 43c | 3,106$1,335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,334.51 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd60…396cbacked Over | 60c | 1,807$1,084 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$722.84 | 195 | 46.2%90 W · 105 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 7c | 1,469$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.11 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda2e…8904backed Over | 56c | 1,125$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f29…f03dbacked Over | 62c | 654.11$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.81 | 475 | 45.9%218 W · 257 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…bfecbacked Under | 41c | 552.52$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.27 | 340 | 44.4%151 W · 189 L | -14.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Under | 35c | 501.7$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.92 | 403 | 41.4%167 W · 236 L | -20.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 32c | 468.47$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.91 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 39c | 450.08$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.53 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 55c | 343$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.35 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 33c | 283.8$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.11 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Under | 38c | 232.53$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.36 | 167 | 46.7%78 W · 89 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…3c72backed Over | 62c | 181$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.78 | 115 | 55.7%64 W · 51 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfce…5c3ebacked Over | 55c | 169$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.05 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Over | 55c | 163.18$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.43 | 674 | 53%357 W · 317 L | +28.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Under | 38c | 154.47$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.7 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbc8…4f5bbacked Over | 55c | 138$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.1 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Under | 32c | 120$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 416 | 37.5%156 W · 260 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c85…9634backed Over | 56c | 109.17$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.41 | 119 | 56.3%67 W · 52 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 33c | 100.03$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe840…733cbacked Over | 65c | 86.78$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.37 | 125 | 41.6%52 W · 73 L | -13.5wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3116…b30dbacked Under | 32c | 86.4$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.65 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Under | 36c | 81.11$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 528 | 52.1%275 W · 253 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…68ccbacked Under | 34c | 78.4$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.36 | 450 | 45.8%206 W · 244 L | -10.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 40c | 75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…7f1abacked Under | 36c | 61.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 412 | 36.7%151 W · 261 L | -16.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…f1bdbacked Under | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 214 | 49.5%106 W · 108 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5f…2184backed Over | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74f9…6024backed Over | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 160 | 57.5%92 W · 68 L | +12.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca2b…3489backed Under | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 292 | 42.5%124 W · 168 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 37c | 47.42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 297 | 52.5%156 W · 141 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb6…2ea0backed Under | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -34%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a62…5247backed Under | 43c | 38.74$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 140 | 47.9%67 W · 73 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x205d…2ad2backed Over | 55c | 38.1$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 69c | 30.51$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 6.5this page
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh PiratesPittsburgh Pirates won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 13.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 17.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-3.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-4.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh PiratesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.