Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on July 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6350394669a1e2834ede98db4f15968503d659c310cdcebb52fc5175f9a64b26
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,626
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,858
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,626 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 26c | 748.08$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.88 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 75c | 460.3$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.28 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3175…9bb2backed Yes | 24c | 360.2$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.99 | 166 | 42.8%71 W · 95 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 76c | 312.49$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.77 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 75c | 243.2$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.78 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf0…7260backed Yes | 30c | 230$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 23c | 145.88$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.48 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf44d…28b8backed Yes | 18c | 127.25$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.91 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 72c | 125$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62d3…e694backed Yes | 31c | 99.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 161 | 35.4%57 W · 104 L | -12.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 14c | 86.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 20c | 84.44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 30c | 80.61$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 75c | 77.66$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.08 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x215b…8ec5backed Yes | 26c | 71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 153 | 34.6%53 W · 100 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 24c | 69.49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 22c | 68.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 68c | 67$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.69 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 76c | 54.77$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.21 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 73c | 47$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.69 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 23c | 45.24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 70c | 42.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.64 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x074e…b9d1backed Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 70c | 39.85$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 78c | 36.75$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 72c | 32.07$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 71c | 27.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 70c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked No | 63c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 318 | 66%210 W · 108 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked No | 73c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 283 | 68.6%194 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on July 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on July 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on July 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.