NFL · resolved market
Spread: Chargers (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x637679abc0a55b3d1e1a3110c87027a1e99bd3f306d96fbe3213d31d87025599
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Dolphinsof Chargers, Dolphins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $101,564
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $101,563
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $101,564 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Dolphins | 52c | 83,033$43,017 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40,016.23 | 418 | 51.9%217 W · 201 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1496…a429backed Chargers | 48c | 35,000$16,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,800 | 274 | 54.7%150 W · 124 L | +13.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x052c…404ebacked Chargers | 49c | 20,408$10,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,000 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa315…cabbbacked Chargers | 48c | 16,551$7,945 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,944.58 | 284 | 47.5%135 W · 149 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Chargers | 48c | 10,416$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,999.68 | 373 | 50.9%190 W · 183 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Chargers | 48c | 8,500$4,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,080 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Dolphins | 51c | 5,000$2,550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,450 | 257 | 44.4%114 W · 143 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa4…e9d2backed Dolphins | 52c | 3,854$2,004 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,849.92 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Dolphins | 51c | 3,790$1,933 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,857.26 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a38…8fb5backed Chargers | 49c | 2,041$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Dolphins | 52c | 2,000$1,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a87…4e00backed Chargers | 48c | 2,000$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb820…cbe7backed Chargers | 48c | 591.25$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.8 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb72b…f4e0backed Chargers | 49c | 510.2$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 167 | 37.7%63 W · 104 L | -6.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Chargers | 48c | 401.62$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.69 | 313 | 50.2%157 W · 156 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b02…f3d9backed Chargers | 50c | 250$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 211 | 51.2%108 W · 103 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x685d…22d6backed Chargers | 50c | 242$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 72 | 59.7%43 W · 29 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Chargers | 49c | 237.4$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.33 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5fb…dcb0backed Chargers | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf48d…fe48backed Dolphins | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 149 | 49%73 W · 76 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…fa4ebacked Chargers | 51c | 129.41$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6941…efd5backed Chargers | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 132 | 53%70 W · 62 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7daf…f1b3backed Chargers | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -3.9wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Chargers | 48c | 67$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.16 | 647 | 47.3%306 W · 341 L | +42.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Dolphins | 52c | 62.68$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.07 | 419 | 47.3%198 W · 221 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc757…f18cbacked Chargers | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 71 | 57.7%41 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0448…5a75backed Dolphins | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5318…2a91backed Dolphins | 52c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 105 | 49.5%52 W · 53 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25b0…94ebbacked Chargers | 49c | 24.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 46 | 60.9%28 W · 18 L | +4.1wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Chargers (-3.5)this page
- Chargers vs. DolphinsChargers won
- Chargers vs. Dolphins: O/U 43.5Over won
- Chargers vs. Dolphins: O/U 44.5Over won
- Spread: Chargers (-4.5)Dolphins won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.