NFL · resolved market
Spread: Chargers (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf7672488681350d96a344ceb4a29dc5759f3a94d3a43fdf31af94777fc8f79c1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Dolphinsof Chargers, Dolphins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $108,608
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $108,968
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $108,608 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Dolphins | 55c | 85,286$47,070 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38,215.66 | 418 | 51.9%217 W · 201 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68df…4815backed Chargers | 44c | 44,792$19,709 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,708.66 | 181 | 56.9%103 W · 78 L | +11.8wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe895…c3dabacked Chargers | 46c | 24,050$11,063 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,063 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb1e…88d5backed Dolphins | 57c | 11,709$6,674 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,034.94 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ac1…45dbbacked Chargers | 47c | 10,000$4,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,700 | 77 | 54.5%42 W · 35 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Chargers | 44c | 8,000$3,520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,520 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Chargers | 43c | 6,467$2,782 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,781.87 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa315…cabbbacked Chargers | 45c | 2,415$1,084 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,084.19 | 284 | 47.5%135 W · 149 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Dolphins | 55c | 1,735$949 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$786.05 | 259 | 56.8%147 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Chargers | 45c | 1,430$644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$643.5 | 224 | 50%112 W · 112 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Chargers | 44c | 997.81$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.77 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Chargers | 45c | 950.91$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.8 | 313 | 50.2%157 W · 156 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71b3…a5d6backed Dolphins | 56c | 628.57$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.57 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Dolphins | 55c | 417.22$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.75 | 206 | 61.2%126 W · 80 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Dolphins | 51c | 336.31$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.87 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…f8bebacked Dolphins | 54c | 326.07$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.99 | 194 | 59.3%115 W · 79 L | +15.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xacbe…85d4backed Chargers | 47c | 294.98$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ca…e8d0backed Chargers | 52c | 292$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.81 | 71 | 31%22 W · 49 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -36%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbde…a050backed Chargers | 46c | 260.87$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 99 | 40.4%40 W · 59 L | -8.4wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Chargers | 48c | 224.23$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.53 | 419 | 47.3%198 W · 221 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e52…6577backed Chargers | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…d4d8backed Chargers | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b80…657fbacked Chargers | 45c | 222$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 157 | 46.5%73 W · 84 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0891…508abacked Chargers | 48c | 208.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Dolphins | 53c | 199.99$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.99 | 109 | 48.6%53 W · 56 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb43…9d70backed Dolphins | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 117 | 44.4%52 W · 65 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Dolphins | 53c | 189.99$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.3 | 553 | 45%249 W · 304 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d1…7c31backed Dolphins | 55c | 140.51$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ea…83c8backed Chargers | 46c | 138$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…8283backed Chargers | 47c | 131.61$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 127 | 55.1%70 W · 57 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c3…3800backed Chargers | 46c | 130.43$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 83 | 42.2%35 W · 48 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31e1…be58backed Dolphins | 55c | 128.29$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Dolphins | 49c | 127.07$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.42 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e2…17a9backed Chargers | 46c | 126$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Dolphins | 56c | 120$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.8 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -4.3wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e4…24c2backed Chargers | 46c | 117.39$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 91 | 51.6%47 W · 44 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad5c…ac13backed Chargers | 45c | 112$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | -8.4wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Dolphins | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0aaa…8212backed Dolphins | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Dolphins | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 75 | 26.7%20 W · 55 L | -12.9wins | -0.17per pick | 44cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xab3b…a825backed Chargers | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 134 | 55.2%74 W · 60 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Chargers | 44c | 99.98$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.99 | 297 | 51.5%153 W · 144 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8540…ee5dbacked Dolphins | 55c | 97.75$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50cd…3477backed Chargers | 46c | 96$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdab7…cbc3backed Dolphins | 55c | 89.6$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.32 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72ea…ab9dbacked Dolphins | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…3984backed Chargers | 45c | 88.89$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -52%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x73f4…4d20backed Chargers | 46c | 88$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f8…1affbacked Dolphins | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.73 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Dolphins | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.73 | 198 | 44.9%89 W · 109 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ee…2198backed Dolphins | 55c | 69.24$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadaa…7948backed Chargers | 46c | 68$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Dolphins | 54c | 66$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.36 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7259…a6c4backed Chargers | 46c | 66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.36 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde47…aa74backed Dolphins | 55c | 63.13$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eaa…24e8backed Chargers | 46c | 62$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…ec0dbacked Dolphins | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 183 | 50.3%92 W · 91 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79fb…b4aebacked Chargers | 47c | 53.74$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb590…15d3backed Dolphins | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Dolphins | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02f7…b17abacked Dolphins | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Dolphins | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc757…f18cbacked Chargers | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 71 | 57.7%41 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked Chargers | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 177 | 41.8%74 W · 103 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…fba2backed Chargers | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0338…4f11backed Dolphins | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfca9…cb3dbacked Dolphins | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8699…dcb5backed Chargers | 47c | 22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Chargers (-4.5)this page
- Chargers vs. DolphinsChargers won
- Chargers vs. Dolphins: O/U 43.5Over won
- Chargers vs. Dolphins: O/U 44.5Over won
- Spread: Chargers (-3.5)Dolphins won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.