Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on July 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x639cffa3b171aa4c68f548990ba607f48e047127cbb9fde52a2357cffc956a50
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,980
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,807
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,980 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 11c | 2,456$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.46 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 20c | 2,366$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.28 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 79c | 1,122$890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.67 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 12c | 1,034$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.29 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 15c | 757.03$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.73 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 11c | 441.75$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.07 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 80c | 427.22$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.44 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 80c | 400$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 19c | 363.63$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.56 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e70…bb75backed Yes | 20c | 193.4$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.05 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +19%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 18c | 178.04$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.05 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 26c | 168.12$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.51 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 14c | 147.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 23c | 135$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.9 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb818…d5a2backed Yes | 12c | 134.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -38%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf4…f4c3backed No | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 116 | 26.7%31 W · 85 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed Yes | 21c | 125$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9168…01d6backed Yes | 22c | 124.88$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 10c | 121.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x578e…c940backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84e3…3dfdbacked No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 148 | 78.4%116 W · 32 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2141…7fa2backed Yes | 13c | 99.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 182 | 19.2%35 W · 147 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd97…bf49backed Yes | 21c | 99.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -5.2wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9c39…7fbdbacked Yes | 16c | 76.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -3.3wins | -0.13per pick | 28cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x667c…559cbacked Yes | 24c | 70.65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +4.7wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbc71…5919backed Yes | 58c | 51.53$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a8d…f736backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbe…4f51backed No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 79c | 46$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.74 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a5a…0231backed No | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb38…9502backed No | 80c | 37$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 12 | 91.7%11 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 73cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 37c | 28.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa747…bebcbacked No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 80c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 80c | 18.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.71 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 68c | 15.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82ce…e92abacked No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 124 | 67.7%84 W · 40 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9518…6c1ebacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 106 | 71.7%76 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on July 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on July 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on July 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.