Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on July 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfc5787cfae407a22a251797dcef92ef2ec826e01f78253160ecaeb016470b066
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,073
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,345
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,073 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 29c | 699.96$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.97 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 73c | 657.72$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.67 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 25c | 565.42$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.47 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 29c | 457.41$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.51 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 63c | 306.79$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.54 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 49c | 276.54$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.94 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 75c | 250$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.5 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e80…22b8backed No | 69c | 239.83$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 135 | 27.4%37 W · 98 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 72c | 227.31$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.31 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 47c | 206$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.73 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 24c | 196.55$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.11 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 66c | 183.69$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.12 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 23c | 165.57$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.72 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 32c | 154.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.24 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 22c | 146.74$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.47 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 16c | 139.79$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.12 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 11c | 135.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 33c | 107.1$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.76 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed Yes | 20c | 98.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.15 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 38c | 97.68$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.1 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cb…6882backed No | 68c | 96.93$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.09 | 177 | 59.9%106 W · 71 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 68c | 93.48$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.01 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 72c | 82.89$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.98 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 68c | 82.2$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 70c | 79.7$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.87 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x667c…559cbacked Yes | 41c | 77.74$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.06 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +4.7wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 32c | 74.22$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.26 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 67c | 66.6$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.38 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 42c | 63.38$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.56 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 69c | 60$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 32c | 57.24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.68 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 32c | 55.48$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.88 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 75c | 51.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.99 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked Yes | 31c | 51.22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.18 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9168…01d6backed Yes | 67c | 49.41$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.41 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 32c | 46.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.14 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0288…ee2ebacked Yes | 32c | 46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 222 | 32%71 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed Yes | 32c | 45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4681…583cbacked Yes | 47c | 43.7$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.17 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a8d…f736backed No | 69c | 43.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe953…f549backed Yes | 36c | 41.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x775c…28a9backed No | 69c | 39$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.91 | 89 | 64%57 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed Yes | 29c | 38.06$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.06 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 69c | 38$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.22 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea5…0b15backed Yes | 33c | 35.97$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.07 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe43f…a889backed No | 64c | 35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 174 | 57.5%100 W · 74 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 51c | 32.73$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 61c | 32.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 74c | 30.52$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.73 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 68c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 69c | 29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 68c | 29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 69c | 28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 68c | 28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd834…1d87backed Yes | 38c | 26.92$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.82 | 71 | 33.8%24 W · 47 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc71…5919backed Yes | 59c | 25.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.48 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 64c | 24.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…b1f2backed No | 65c | 23.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…1733backed No | 44c | 22.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 213 | 38.5%82 W · 131 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7274…c205backed Yes | 70c | 21.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.41 | 213 | 61%130 W · 83 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 72c | 20.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.84 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 67c | 19.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 76c | 18.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 68c | 17.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on July 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on July 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.