Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on July 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8b220f34f05f48360262f35a4fa17c6e377ec37c648a36a83430598b72e1d4fa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,178
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,782
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,178 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 38c | 713.6$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.77 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 76c | 612.06$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.16 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 25c | 500$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 34c | 419.55$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.49 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9470…989dbacked No | 64c | 385.43$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.46 | 109 | 27.5%30 W · 79 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed No | 61c | 349.99$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.5 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 31c | 349.29$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.88 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 69c | 299.99$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 66c | 294.23$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.72 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf4…f4c3backed Yes | 35c | 290.94$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.78 | 116 | 26.7%31 W · 85 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 67c | 279.99$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.4 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 41c | 274.93$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.89 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2a9…2bb1backed Yes | 37c | 247.37$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.99 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed No | 57c | 232.73$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.28 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 71c | 232.48$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.36 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 68c | 215.43$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.93 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e6f…528cbacked Yes | 36c | 192.24$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 66c | 173.67$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.3 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe77…4dbfbacked Yes | 6c | 171.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6bd…2c9dbacked No | 62c | 160.62$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.62 | 213 | 40.8%87 W · 126 L | +23.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +34%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 32c | 156.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.12 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed Yes | 32c | 125$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 59c | 119.93$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.17 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 63c | 117$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.29 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 67c | 116.29$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.37 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 31c | 103.23$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bd3…af33backed No | 67c | 102.6$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.61 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 31c | 101$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.31 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed No | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes | 37c | 99.98$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.99 | 191 | 37.2%71 W · 120 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 65c | 97.59$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.46 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 27c | 96.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.53 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf01d…bb31backed No | 65c | 94.54$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.09 | 162 | 72.2%117 W · 45 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed No | 73c | 94.28$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.08 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 66c | 93.48$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.79 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 65c | 90$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.8 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 69c | 90$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.9 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 22c | 85.87$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 27c | 84.13$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.72 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 56c | 83.35$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.82 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 65c | 82.2$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.06 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 64c | 77.8$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.25 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked No | 68c | 74$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.68 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 33c | 73.38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.29 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x418d…0595backed Yes | 38c | 70$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.9 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 68c | 64.29$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.31 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa621…0e64backed Yes | 35c | 57.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 63c | 57.14$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.14 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b5…e373backed Yes | 37c | 56.73$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 151 | 28.5%43 W · 108 L | -12.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed No | 63c | 56.17$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.87 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 69c | 55.77$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.29 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa79d…1acdbacked Yes | 38c | 52.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 35c | 50.02$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 61c | 48.89$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.85 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 30c | 47.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9168…01d6backed Yes | 39c | 44.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 67c | 44$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.65 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4681…583cbacked Yes | 41c | 43.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 34c | 42.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cb…6882backed No | 62c | 41.95$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 177 | 59.9%106 W · 71 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c3…92fcbacked Yes | 37c | 40.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 176 | 49.4%87 W · 89 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7274…c205backed Yes | 33c | 40.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 213 | 61%130 W · 83 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 64c | 40.28$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed Yes | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 38c | 39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 65c | 38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e1…716dbacked Yes | 41c | 37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe953…f549backed Yes | 35c | 35.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 63c | 33.67$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.62 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cda…d7c6backed Yes | 35c | 33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 63c | 31.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 29.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 64c | 28.25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…fc14backed No | 69c | 25.76$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.99 | 203 | 47.8%97 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56e3…9a51backed No | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 108 | 30.6%33 W · 75 L | -10.5wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 65c | 24.65$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.59 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 64c | 23.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc43…1271backed Yes | 58c | 20.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.26per pick | 64cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x002d…47a2backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 27 | 77.8%21 W · 6 L | +4.0wins | +0.15per pick | 63cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb22a…1479backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 33 | 69.7%23 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd99c…8490backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 24 | 79.2%19 W · 5 L | +4.2wins | +0.17per pick | 62cpaid | +28%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x989e…aa30backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 64c | 18.72$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 61c | 18.03$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb335…aac1backed Yes | 56c | 18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 95 | 38.9%37 W · 58 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 74c | 17.09$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.51 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 65c | 15.57$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 68c | 15.03$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 72c | 14.1$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.93 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 79c | 13.28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.83 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on July 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on July 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on July 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.