NHL · resolved market
Penguins vs. Flyers: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x63bf624197b0ebcb1d8fa6b12ddf1b4615867127a7eab4a44b79d9ba16fe1dde
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,775
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,696
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,775 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5db9…e95fbacked Under | 46c | 1,951$898 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,053.77 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 78c | 1,951$1,522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.31 | 138 | 41.3%57 W · 81 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 54c | 1,524$823 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$823.19 | 287 | 49.8%143 W · 144 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 67c | 592.19$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.26 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…9be0backed Under | 46c | 581.08$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.78 | 336 | 52.1%175 W · 161 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x016c…df21backed Over | 20c | 506.19$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.6 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 54c | 500$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 418 | 42.8%179 W · 239 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 49c | 347.53$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.64 | 502 | 51.2%257 W · 245 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 46c | 339.55$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.36 | 335 | 54%181 W · 154 L | +13.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 53c | 226.9$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.26 | 769 | 50.3%387 W · 382 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5782…8ce5backed Over | 54c | 200$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…eecabacked Over | 54c | 198.15$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 78c | 176.39$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.13 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Under | 46c | 146.95$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.35 | 229 | 46.3%106 W · 123 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…85c0backed Over | 54c | 138.89$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 102 | 56.9%58 W · 44 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed85…c85abacked Over | 54c | 131.57$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.05 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 53c | 125.11$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.31 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6158…81bcbacked Under | 47c | 125$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.25 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Under | 46c | 101.01$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.55 | 865 | 49.1%425 W · 440 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5cf…c503backed Under | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 137 | 49.6%68 W · 69 L | +7.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36d0…8dcebacked Over | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 180 | 46.7%84 W · 96 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcec1…9c0cbacked Over | 40c | 96$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16db…8d0fbacked Over | 40c | 96$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 83 | 45.8%38 W · 45 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x456a…6a90backed Over | 40c | 96$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc46e…9ed8backed Over | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 79c | 92.59$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 266 | 57.1%152 W · 114 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5471…a236backed Under | 69c | 88$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.98 | 115 | 51.3%59 W · 56 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc4b…c865backed Under | 47c | 72.34$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.34 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Under | 46c | 66$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.64 | 337 | 45.7%154 W · 183 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Over | 54c | 64.81$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 432 | 56.5%244 W · 188 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked Over | 54c | 64.81$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 719 | 52.4%377 W · 342 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Over | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 65 | 50.8%33 W · 32 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88fc…74a4backed Over | 54c | 51.85$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 134 | 42.5%57 W · 77 L | -7.5wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Under | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 189 | 41.8%79 W · 110 L | -10.2wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7072…d945backed Under | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 429 | 48.7%209 W · 220 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cfa…0738backed Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +5.1wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc516…7f3abacked Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 80 | 63.8%51 W · 29 L | +8.4wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x52a0…ec9dbacked Over | 54c | 34.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9733…f01dbacked Over | 54c | 27.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c8…d506backed Over | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe452…4de3backed Over | 54c | 20.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 598 | 52.3%313 W · 285 L | +34.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Penguins vs. Flyers: O/U 5.5this page
- Penguins vs. FlyersFlyers won
- Penguins vs. Flyers: O/U 2.5Under won
- Penguins vs. Flyers: O/U 3.5Under won
- Penguins vs. Flyers: O/U 4.5Under won
- Penguins vs. Flyers: O/U 6.5Under won
- Penguins vs. Flyers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Flyers (-1.5)Penguins won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.