NHL · resolved market
Penguins vs. Flyers: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6bc84a242515195ce4ed0d22f9f2fa22864a65922a457f5507c46c56d8b8db49
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $124,536
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $125,833
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $124,536 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x47a8…52f9backed Under | 60c | 115,806$69,310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46,495.81 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a2c…9bc1backed Over | 40c | 101,069$40,428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40,427.67 | 403 | 51.9%209 W · 194 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44d6…9858backed Over | 42c | 5,000$2,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,100 | 291 | 46.7%136 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 42c | 4,700$1,974 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,974 | 418 | 42.8%179 W · 239 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 41c | 3,003$1,221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,221.19 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9438…3d6abacked Over | 40c | 2,101$840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$840.21 | 177 | 61.6%109 W · 68 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc322…3f23backed Under | 60c | 840$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 39c | 656.76$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.36 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24bc…1b77backed Under | 59c | 508.47$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.47 | 122 | 58.2%71 W · 51 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Under | 60c | 500$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 472 | 56.8%268 W · 204 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 38c | 499.93$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.56 | 502 | 51.2%257 W · 245 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ec5…4168backed Under | 78c | 395.02$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.02 | 44 | 68.2%30 W · 14 L | +5.1wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 70c | 345$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.75 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd96a…d8cebacked Over | 23c | 328.79$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.13 | 93 | 21.5%20 W · 73 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Over | 31c | 299.99$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 115 | 43.5%50 W · 65 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 40c | 283.34$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.84 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 40c | 262.74$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.1 | 594 | 50.8%302 W · 292 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Over | 41c | 243.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 204 | 47.1%96 W · 108 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 58c | 232.88$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.73 | 335 | 54%181 W · 154 L | +13.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed Over | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 125 | 36%45 W · 80 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 28c | 135.36$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.93 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Over | 42c | 101.01$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.42 | 865 | 49.1%425 W · 440 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd3…bd04backed Under | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 58c | 82.92$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.78 | 769 | 50.3%387 W · 382 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 41c | 73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.93 | 538 | 49.4%266 W · 272 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcae6…6a5ebacked Under | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 40c | 72$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 142 | 54.9%78 W · 64 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf51f…194cbacked Under | 70c | 71.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.44 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Under | 60c | 66.67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 397 | 51.1%203 W · 194 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3f…8e2bbacked Under | 59c | 59.22$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.28 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0199…4e86backed Under | 60c | 57.6$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6495…6cd7backed Under | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62ff…ec56backed Over | 40c | 50.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.21 | 129 | 47.3%61 W · 68 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Over | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Over | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb619…a24fbacked Under | 60c | 43.33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 429 | 48.7%209 W · 220 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Under | 64c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 283 | 40.3%114 W · 169 L | -24.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x29c4…c3b0backed Over | 41c | 39.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3169…6dccbacked Under | 60c | 37.97$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.19 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb308…23a6backed Under | 68c | 36.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cac…988ebacked Under | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 51 | 64.7%33 W · 18 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe61d…5f97backed Under | 61c | 32.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4658…4131backed Over | 39c | 30.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 106 | 63.2%67 W · 39 L | +7.7wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…c320backed Over | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 64c | 28.14$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 410 | 50.7%208 W · 202 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3162…d515backed Over | 40c | 25.27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 58c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7baa…03b7backed Under | 72c | 24.36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 127 | 63.8%81 W · 46 L | +10.1wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d30…5f85backed Under | 72c | 24.36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba6…cd3ebacked Under | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 89 | 64%57 W · 32 L | +8.7wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 69c | 19.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 1,140 | 51.5%587 W · 553 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c4b…839fbacked Under | 63c | 19.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea06…39acbacked Under | 60c | 18.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea9…5b98backed Under | 60c | 18.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +3.0wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Penguins vs. Flyers: O/U 6.5this page
- Penguins vs. FlyersFlyers won
- Penguins vs. Flyers: O/U 2.5Under won
- Penguins vs. Flyers: O/U 3.5Under won
- Penguins vs. Flyers: O/U 4.5Under won
- Penguins vs. Flyers: O/U 5.5Under won
- Penguins vs. Flyers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Flyers (-1.5)Penguins won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.