NHL · resolved market
Penguins vs. Flyers: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcad1d16870a7f20c5fcbc63a7cfb564488262ba7431d86165363490aa93bdda9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,375
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,913
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,375 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9762…73fbbacked Over | 79c | 1,396$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 38 | 73.7%28 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16db…8d0fbacked Over | 46c | 921.5$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.89 | 83 | 45.8%38 W · 45 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Under | 20c | 500$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 165 | 46.7%77 W · 88 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 55c | 426.67$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192 | 138 | 41.3%57 W · 81 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c16…a5e3backed Over | 45c | 422.22$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20e5…d3bcbacked Over | 45c | 373.59$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.11 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf58c…0b79backed Under | 55c | 363.64$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.64 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 65c | 320$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.8 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Over | 35c | 300$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 115 | 43.5%50 W · 65 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 27c | 252.54$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.07 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7e…70ecbacked Under | 23c | 202.3$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.25 | 203 | 50.7%103 W · 100 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe33f…e413backed Under | 25c | 199.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.99 | 79 | 25.3%20 W · 59 L | -7.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -31%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 71c | 181.22$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.7 | 502 | 51.2%257 W · 245 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 53c | 151.65$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.15 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Under | 24c | 102.04$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.55 | 865 | 49.1%425 W · 440 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcec1…9c0cbacked Over | 46c | 101.95$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.9 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed Under | 23c | 100$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 979 | 55.5%543 W · 436 L | +21.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad9e…53c2backed Over | 76c | 67.3$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 23 | 87%20 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.13per pick | 74cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 32c | 63.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.17 | 429 | 48.7%209 W · 220 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe9f…8e23backed Under | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36d0…8dcebacked Over | 68c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 180 | 46.7%84 W · 96 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x386d…9bb6backed Over | 44c | 44.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 29c | 37.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 498 | 51%254 W · 244 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb308…23a6backed Under | 62c | 32.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddc…e874backed Under | 52c | 31.7$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.14 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ad…5097backed Over | 58c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b45…ac9fbacked Under | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 133 | 43.6%58 W · 75 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 40c | 26.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 148 | 55.4%82 W · 66 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Under | 57c | 25.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.91 | 213 | 55.4%118 W · 95 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3c…4b61backed Under | 59c | 19.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d4…523cbacked Over | 75c | 18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Penguins vs. Flyers: O/U 4.5this page
- Penguins vs. FlyersFlyers won
- Penguins vs. Flyers: O/U 2.5Under won
- Penguins vs. Flyers: O/U 3.5Under won
- Penguins vs. Flyers: O/U 5.5Under won
- Penguins vs. Flyers: O/U 6.5Under won
- Penguins vs. Flyers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Flyers (-1.5)Penguins won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.