Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x63ddd08a4829ae7193cb41425e8898b2ead03630bf59ba73d7313aecd720d07b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,668
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,817
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,668 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f30…fd82backed Yes | 9c | 1,300$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 16c | 431.67$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.39 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…a32abacked Yes | 34c | 329.86$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.52 | 216 | 33.8%73 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 42c | 319.99$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.09 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 56c | 319.69$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.96 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 40c | 297.67$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.12 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 61c | 282.72$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.19 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 16c | 281.73$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.18 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x438a…61c4backed No | 45c | 252.07$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.74 | 231 | 43.3%100 W · 131 L | +19.0wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…7a75backed Yes | 18c | 210.83$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.29 | 271 | 29.2%79 W · 192 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd52c…6c59backed Yes | 43c | 191.69$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.43 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 8c | 187$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 72c | 163.2$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.56 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x380b…1fbfbacked No | 54c | 157.44$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.08 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 34cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 69c | 148.8$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.13 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa336…43f1backed Yes | 19c | 144.08$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 52c | 103.67$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.87 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed Yes | 47c | 102.8$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.15 | 241 | 39.8%96 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 40c | 87$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.89 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed No | 60c | 86.02$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.8 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 14c | 77.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 51c | 67.73$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.88 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 59c | 66.01$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.75 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 40c | 61.94$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 17c | 59.64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 79c | 56.8$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfea5…ee06backed Yes | 21c | 49.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 270 | 29.3%79 W · 191 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 43c | 47.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.39 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 78c | 34.17$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 76c | 33.94$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 63c | 31.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.73 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8473…5511backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 91 | 28.6%26 W · 65 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 58c | 21.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.94 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 78c | 18.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.09 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 57c | 18.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 75c | 18.28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.61 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C or higher on June 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.