Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3b0e0c9ccf51e3a01c901b80cb0add353fbb268948e3e2728b362baa6dd5d509
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,134
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,801
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,134 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 4c | 860$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.22 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed No | 67c | 370$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.39 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 4c | 336.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd3…a457backed Yes | 36c | 275.06$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.93 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d09…143fbacked Yes | 21c | 264.8$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.04 | 288 | 29.5%85 W · 203 L | +32.9wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…a32abacked Yes | 70c | 239.37$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.98 | 216 | 33.8%73 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 19c | 198.37$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.96 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 60c | 176.2$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.96 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcff…8528backed Yes | 40c | 173.69$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.78 | 61 | 59%36 W · 25 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x438a…61c4backed No | 9c | 169.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 231 | 43.3%100 W · 131 L | +19.0wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 57c | 162.32$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.04 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked No | 11c | 155.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd52c…6c59backed Yes | 31c | 150$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.5 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed Yes | 44c | 146.38$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.78 | 241 | 39.8%96 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 38c | 141.93$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.36 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 30c | 135.59$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.38 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 33c | 135$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.75 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 67c | 125.7$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.6 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 43c | 112.8$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.38 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 68c | 110$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.33 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 68c | 101.4$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.87 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfea5…ee06backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 270 | 29.3%79 W · 191 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.89 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 57c | 99.99$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 59c | 97.04$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.19 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 36c | 90.1$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.04 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 45c | 80$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.7 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…df1dbacked Yes | 32c | 75$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 230 | 60.9%140 W · 90 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc7…51adbacked Yes | 27c | 64.97$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.47 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +137.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8473…5511backed Yes | 33c | 60.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.7 | 91 | 28.6%26 W · 65 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 34c | 56.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.36 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 43c | 50.98$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.06 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8530…2710backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b5…e373backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 151 | 28.5%43 W · 108 L | -12.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc3…4972backed Yes | 34c | 46$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.44 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 68c | 45.15$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.81 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 33c | 44.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.96 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f30…fd82backed Yes | 40c | 28.06$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.84 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked Yes | 50c | 27.6$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.91 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 64c | 27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf0…6444backed No | 63c | 26.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.39 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 61c | 25.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 60c | 24.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 54c | 24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 46c | 23.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 69c | 22.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8e…cfaabacked Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 190 | 39.5%75 W · 115 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 62c | 17.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 62c | 16.92$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82e7…f552backed No | 70c | 16.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 354 | 41%145 W · 209 L | -19.3wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98af…dd79backed No | 61c | 16.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C or higher on June 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.