NHL · resolved market
Flames vs. Wild
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x64408ec9a5963a7a3c6396cc988532f46b1ca399280edb607f32b23f27a03253
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Flamesof Flames, Wild
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $93,875
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $125,635
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $93,875 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Wild | 0c | 13,537$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 448 | 48.9%219 W · 229 L | +12.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked Wild | 0c | 3,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,163 | 2.3%27 W · 1,136 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -87.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40e3…0787backed Wild | 10c | 2,625$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.37 | 323 | 31.3%101 W · 222 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c57…5b16backed Flames | 41c | 1,650$676 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$973.24 | 1,475 | 48.3%712 W · 763 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4673…d99bbacked Wild | 59c | 1,450$855 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$855.5 | 318 | 49.4%157 W · 161 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Wild | 11c | 1,316$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.75 | 1,025 | 40.8%418 W · 607 L | +15.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa315…cabbbacked Flames | 40c | 1,160$464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$696.22 | 322 | 51.9%167 W · 155 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58b5…7340backed Wild | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 103 | 1%1 W · 102 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -97.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc0…f722backed Wild | 57c | 911.11$519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.33 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Wild | 60c | 888.98$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$533.39 | 751 | 55.8%419 W · 332 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…ec92backed Flames | 40c | 776.24$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$467.98 | 543 | 49.5%269 W · 274 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60cd…a1b6backed Wild | 58c | 517.36$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 106 | 58.5%62 W · 44 L | +5.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x489a…bcdebacked Flames | 40c | 503.22$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.93 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +120.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe00…20c6backed Wild | 61c | 503.22$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.96 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked Flames | 43c | 500$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.15 | 724 | 44.6%323 W · 401 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf61b…f73ebacked Flames | 45c | 400$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Wild | 57c | 206.07$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.46 | 792 | 51.1%405 W · 387 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7524…2149backed Wild | 59c | 203.39$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +3.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +17%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6805…405abacked Flames | 43c | 200$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9702…df1ebacked Wild | 57c | 175.05$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.78 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed Flames | 43c | 174$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.18 | 418 | 51.4%215 W · 203 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Wild | 54c | 153.53$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.9 | 355 | 45.4%161 W · 194 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9353…cdbebacked Wild | 59c | 150$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.5 | 508 | 57.7%293 W · 215 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Wild | 57c | 119.16$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.49 | 840 | 51.4%432 W · 408 L | +19.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8494…3413backed Flames | 40c | 111.44$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.44 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…07e1backed Flames | 70c | 106.44$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.24 | 854 | 64.2%548 W · 306 L | +64.5wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b2f…1c71backed Flames | 45c | 101.96$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.86 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +22%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Wild | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 1,037 | 55%570 W · 467 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x904b…429cbacked Wild | 58c | 99.97$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.98 | 500 | 49.4%247 W · 253 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d48…fb21backed Flames | 44c | 99.55$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.75 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Flames | 42c | 99$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.42 | 818 | 46%376 W · 442 L | +4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf852…38a8backed Wild | 57c | 95$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.3 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x994e…9cf5backed Wild | 56c | 92.69$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.77 | 493 | 51.3%253 W · 240 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d72…4f41backed Wild | 57c | 89.35$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.93 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x844f…4e5abacked Flames | 46c | 89.15$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.54 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e5…311ebacked Wild | 57c | 88.82$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.48 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 66cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x504e…9e5cbacked Wild | 57c | 88.54$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.3 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ac…c15fbacked Wild | 57c | 87.82$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.66 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x433c…35bfbacked Flames | 46c | 87.07$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.42 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae36…0dc6backed Flames | 46c | 86.96$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.96 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8f…972abacked Flames | 45c | 86.76$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.12 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdce8…c1afbacked Wild | 57c | 83.84$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.79 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa92e…bcc3backed Wild | 57c | 83.77$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.68 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x05c9…271bbacked Flames | 45c | 81.83$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.01 | 107 | 44.9%48 W · 59 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85b8…a255backed Flames | 44c | 80.41$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.03 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30e1…0400backed Flames | 45c | 78.39$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.73 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.24per pick | 59cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d12…4bc0backed Flames | 39c | 51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Wild | 56c | 50.52$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.29 | 764 | 50.4%385 W · 379 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Wild | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 95 | 53.7%51 W · 44 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Flames | 43c | 48.56$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.68 | 928 | 48.5%450 W · 478 L | +17.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd24e…9441backed Flames | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.62 | 88 | 63.6%56 W · 32 L | +8.6wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9544…f3fbbacked Flames | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 155 | 49.7%77 W · 78 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…59c5backed Flames | 40c | 45.11$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.07 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x860b…a80fbacked Wild | 57c | 36.84$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7836…6bc4backed Flames | 44c | 33.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.63 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ed…c077backed Wild | 59c | 31.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 249 | 49.8%124 W · 125 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa61d…22f6backed Flames | 40c | 28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.76 | 305 | 49.2%150 W · 155 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Flames | 44c | 27.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.27 | 629 | 44%277 W · 352 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.