Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on April 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x648b29694ebd6867bad2df884efbad9e8f2e0e3c09fa401b163164e76bf06cad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,720
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,226
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,720 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 66c | 643.52$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.92 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 35c | 517.23$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.62 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe689…159fbacked No | 17c | 486.97$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.97 | 203 | 42.9%87 W · 116 L | +20.8wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 31c | 318.31$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.07 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 27c | 302.8$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.81 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5a07…923fbacked Yes | 63c | 299.17$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.82 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 35c | 243.98$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.92 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 37c | 235.87$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.7 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06c2…184fbacked Yes | 48c | 233.47$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.13 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +68.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…effbbacked No | 62c | 186.19$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.92 | 116 | 59.5%69 W · 47 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27c7…4399backed No | 64c | 152.29$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.99 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2fb…1c67backed Yes | 67c | 144.87$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.2 | 98 | 77.6%76 W · 22 L | +16.3wins | +0.17per pick | 61cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 51c | 124.26$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.15 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 33c | 115.82$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.5 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked No | 68c | 105.63$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.15 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2002…996bbacked Yes | 69c | 104.48$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.39 | 65 | 78.5%51 W · 14 L | +6.9wins | +0.11per pick | 68cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 53c | 104$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.6 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacad…ee84backed Yes | 48c | 103.13$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.68 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f72…95c9backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…ada9backed Yes | 37c | 99.37$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.6 | 236 | 33.1%78 W · 158 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b0…298fbacked Yes | 51c | 98.82$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.48 | 146 | 26%38 W · 108 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 43c | 97.95$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.17 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 36c | 92.49$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.03 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 47c | 77.64$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.39 | 285 | 17.9%51 W · 234 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd7…1d26backed Yes | 72c | 75.04$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.29 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf31…3255backed No | 65c | 73.77$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.27 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed No | 38c | 71.28$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.14 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 36c | 66.62$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.11 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 27c | 63.61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbb…1928backed No | 62c | 60.37$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.43 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -5.2wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2975…0da8backed Yes | 68c | 56.83$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…f822backed Yes | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 194 | 30.4%59 W · 135 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd50c…3360backed Yes | 35c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.7 | 281 | 42%118 W · 163 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed No | 66c | 48.67$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.05 | 351 | 68.4%240 W · 111 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 35c | 46.79$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.28 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe7c…b988backed No | 55c | 46.28$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.29 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.9wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked No | 42c | 45.58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 32c | 45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 36c | 42.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.96 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 35c | 36.12$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x172e…997fbacked Yes | 40c | 35.36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.26 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 35c | 34.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.6 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x517d…c821backed No | 61c | 34.1$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…2ea5backed No | 46c | 32.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8de…604cbacked Yes | 33c | 31$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.77 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f16…063dbacked Yes | 35c | 30.89$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.95 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14ea…998bbacked No | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 159 | 37.7%60 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb99…15d6backed Yes | 53c | 29.54$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 42c | 29.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.94 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa18b…ea34backed Yes | 39c | 29.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.86 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 48c | 29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.11 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3506…ad95backed No | 65c | 28.16$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.34 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x866d…f673backed Yes | 52c | 23.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.42 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac1…1a0ebacked Yes | 49c | 22.68$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.54 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x515c…7587backed No | 63c | 22.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 66c | 21.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.34 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x05ae…7bc6backed No | 65c | 19.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccd…383bbacked No | 66c | 19.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 208 | 66.8%139 W · 69 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 69c | 17.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 63c | 16.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 76c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.84 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on April 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C or higher on April 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.