Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on April 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8a690920e55158f40eb340aa54ed0a1172c5655515fd21749d508399bce867ab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,998
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,148
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,998 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfff5…108fbacked Yes | 0c | 12,151$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 70c | 436.87$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.52 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 25c | 431.92$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.96 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 20c | 365.3$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.69 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed No | 76c | 281.44$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.61 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27c7…4399backed Yes | 36c | 233.99$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.68 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d8…56bbbacked No | 57c | 216.4$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.24 | 147 | 52.4%77 W · 70 L | +11.7wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 9c | 212.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c81…25cabacked Yes | 14c | 189.43$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.14 | 122 | 33.6%41 W · 81 L | -10.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe689…159fbacked No | 58c | 177.17$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.35 | 203 | 42.9%87 W · 116 L | +20.8wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7bae…61b8backed Yes | 21c | 125.09$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.61 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 45c | 107.92$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.14 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 31c | 102.34$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.77 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 65c | 100.75$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.61 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 32c | 95.03$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.32 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 34c | 93.69$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.16 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 21c | 89.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 29c | 87.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.36 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa18b…ea34backed Yes | 44c | 85.51$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.77 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe7c…b988backed Yes | 63c | 81.89$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.47 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.9wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde8b…612fbacked No | 79c | 80.09$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.01 | 29 | 82.8%24 W · 5 L | +5.8wins | +0.20per pick | 63cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc931…7d46backed No | 69c | 70.95$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.66 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 64c | 59.19$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.15 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 64c | 55.01$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.78 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdad6…0d14backed Yes | 36c | 53.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 148 | 29.7%44 W · 104 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe11d…44ecbacked No | 48c | 52.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 180 | 41.7%75 W · 105 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23d4…ae0cbacked Yes | 36c | 51.49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.73 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 33c | 51$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a9c…6470backed Yes | 35c | 49.54$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed No | 64c | 48.2$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.35 | 351 | 68.4%240 W · 111 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…585cbacked Yes | 27c | 48.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf547…9ebbbacked No | 62c | 48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.48 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 30c | 46.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 32c | 44.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.79 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f90…4e02backed Yes | 32c | 43.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 146 | 13.7%20 W · 126 L | -19.1wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 37c | 42.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 41c | 41.77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x172e…997fbacked Yes | 35c | 40.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 39c | 39.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…d88cbacked Yes | 35c | 39.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 145 | 44.8%65 W · 80 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd38…ddadbacked No | 77c | 39.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 254 | 49.2%125 W · 129 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 41c | 37.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadd0…df58backed No | 76c | 34.21$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.23 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a07…923fbacked Yes | 64c | 30.24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc17f…d96abacked Yes | 58c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 94 | 45.7%43 W · 51 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14ea…998bbacked No | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 159 | 37.7%60 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56c8…f376backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 37c | 29.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 72c | 29.54$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfca1…c1bebacked No | 73c | 29.18$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 62c | 28.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a0…69aebacked No | 67c | 28.83$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.49 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 36c | 27.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.82 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked No | 70c | 24.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 68c | 24.05$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2982…60ddbacked No | 59c | 23.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.78 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 73c | 23.29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.19 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x713a…258dbacked No | 76c | 20.76$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.98 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 75cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe208…e98cbacked No | 56c | 20.59$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.01 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +5.4wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +22%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa4…5c82backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 72 | 63.9%46 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x920d…af4bbacked No | 68c | 16.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.33 | 199 | 70.4%140 W · 59 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on April 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on April 10?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C or higher on April 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.