Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on April 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcc600e67a0b2dc1b1d0ee90ab2056af7270e880817f3ba4eab5d371fed581d0a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,682
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,380
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,682 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 13c | 613.52$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.8 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe689…159fbacked Yes | 5c | 606.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.38 | 203 | 42.9%87 W · 116 L | +20.8wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 5c | 442.45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.24 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 12c | 414.2$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.38 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 399.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 20c | 388.49$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.28 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 17c | 360.41$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.65 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a8…9f68backed Yes | 12c | 314.77$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.05 | 346 | 33.8%117 W · 229 L | +17.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b0…298fbacked Yes | 6c | 311.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.31 | 146 | 26%38 W · 108 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 9c | 273.68$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.55 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 10c | 272.09$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.21 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x297c…0f89backed Yes | 14c | 271.16$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.49 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 10c | 206.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 9c | 201.15$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 10c | 189.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 8c | 179.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbe…4d88backed Yes | 17c | 160.45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.05 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +5.8wins | +0.18per pick | 34cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 17c | 159$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.93 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 11c | 151.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f72…95c9backed Yes | 26c | 150$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 13c | 137.39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.49 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 76c | 134.35$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.2 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 37c | 125.79$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.98 | 285 | 17.9%51 W · 234 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3024…8ecebacked Yes | 9c | 124.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 172 | 37.2%64 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 24c | 120.12$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.83 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30ad…22d6backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…ada9backed Yes | 31c | 99.38$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.81 | 236 | 33.1%78 W · 158 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7309…95bdbacked Yes | 15c | 89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 111 | 24.3%27 W · 84 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf284…c265backed Yes | 26c | 70.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.53 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 22cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 68c | 69.45$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.22 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d4…eacdbacked Yes | 27c | 56.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e66…52f5backed Yes | 25c | 56.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 67 | 20.9%14 W · 53 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd50c…3360backed Yes | 22c | 55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 281 | 42%118 W · 163 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 75c | 43.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.12 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4afa…b3ccbacked Yes | 26c | 38.51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 74 | 45.9%34 W · 40 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 68c | 28.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.27 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked No | 79c | 24.51$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.03 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2b…3d17backed No | 78c | 20.64$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.44 | 87 | 62.1%54 W · 33 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb673…dfedbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccd…383bbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 208 | 66.8%139 W · 69 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1e…9095backed No | 80c | 18.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.68 | 173 | 76.3%132 W · 41 L | +11.7wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…4e36backed No | 75c | 18.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.55 | 197 | 72.6%143 W · 54 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeea3…40e2backed No | 73c | 17.52$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.73 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 73cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on April 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on April 10?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C or higher on April 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.