MLB · resolved market
San Diego Padres vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6496c6b6d42ba6cc04e8ee85364d2e3032fe5c95c5a464abf532da4e96b97046
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,269
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,460
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,269 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdfa6…6c6cbacked Under | 50c | 3,009$1,491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,490.92 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed Over | 50c | 3,000$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,500 | 779 | 51.1%398 W · 381 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ad…45f9backed Under | 48c | 1,975$948 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$947.99 | 117 | 41.9%49 W · 68 L | -8.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -14%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Under | 48c | 1,356$651 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650.97 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Over | 52c | 1,044$543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.12 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 51c | 1,002$511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.97 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Under | 50c | 883.69$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.85 | 390 | 47.4%185 W · 205 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5966…af5dbacked Over | 52c | 685.35$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.02 | 272 | 49.3%134 W · 138 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 41c | 684.38$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.8 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09af…9728backed Over | 52c | 557.63$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.66 | 891 | 53.5%477 W · 414 L | +24.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 48c | 389.44$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.93 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 51c | 338.76$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.99 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 50c | 317.42$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.71 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 56c | 293.18$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.54 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b44…be1ebacked Over | 51c | 259.94$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.37 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 53c | 212.59$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.98 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 50c | 209.62$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.81 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Over | 52c | 190.38$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.38 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Over | 52c | 173.08$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.08 | 443 | 48.5%215 W · 228 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 49c | 168.26$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.45 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 58c | 106.89$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.42 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Over | 53c | 96$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.12 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Under | 59c | 84$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.56 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Over | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.92 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Over | 51c | 75$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.13 | 272 | 48.5%132 W · 140 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa20d…eadebacked Under | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 204 | 46.6%95 W · 109 L | -10.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Over | 52c | 57.03$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.37 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e45…39dabacked Under | 63c | 50.19$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.62 | 185 | 47.6%88 W · 97 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3146…d153backed Under | 63c | 50.19$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.62 | 177 | 49.7%88 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 41c | 45.78$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.01 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 68c | 41$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.77 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Under | 49c | 40.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 50c | 40.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.39 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 38c | 35.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 41c | 32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6762…a9a5backed Under | 37c | 31.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 268 | 53.4%143 W · 125 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb47b…c6b1backed Over | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 111 | 38.7%43 W · 68 L | -11.0wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed Under | 48c | 26.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 447 | 37.4%167 W · 280 L | -24.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 48c | 22.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05b7…c24abacked Over | 51c | 22.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.97 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | -23.2wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Diego Padres vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5this page
- San Diego Padres vs. Milwaukee BrewersMilwaukee Brewers won
- San Diego Padres vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 10.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 11.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 5.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 6.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.