MLB · resolved market
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc0524b5956a90f09e6302ddca94e901157b50accdf3f50f300b0cc930f09c647
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Milwaukee Brewersof Milwaukee Brewers, San Diego Padres
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,027
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,046
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,027 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Milwaukee Brewers | 37c | 621.31$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.26 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed San Diego Padres | 63c | 588.8$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.57 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed San Diego Padres | 62c | 399.98$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.99 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb2…eb78backed Milwaukee Brewers | 38c | 266.97$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.52 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +162%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Milwaukee Brewers | 74c | 227.02$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.98 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Milwaukee Brewers | 38c | 132.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.49 | 569 | 46.9%267 W · 302 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Milwaukee Brewers | 38c | 130$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.6 | 564 | 40.4%228 W · 336 L | -16.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Milwaukee Brewers | 40c | 124$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.4 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Milwaukee Brewers | 50c | 118.67$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.71 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed San Diego Padres | 62c | 108.19$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.08 | 779 | 51.1%398 W · 381 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Milwaukee Brewers | 73c | 105.94$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.16 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9de1…f272backed Milwaukee Brewers | 38c | 105.26$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.26 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed San Diego Padres | 62c | 105.26$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.26 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 38c | 105.26$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.26 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked San Diego Padres | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed San Diego Padres | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Milwaukee Brewers | 36c | 79.3$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.75 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Milwaukee Brewers | 48c | 78.52$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.84 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed San Diego Padres | 28c | 74.25$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Milwaukee Brewers | 37c | 55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.65 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed San Diego Padres | 63c | 54.71$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.47 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Milwaukee Brewers | 77c | 52.48$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.93 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked San Diego Padres | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked San Diego Padres | 22c | 49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc78…f1f5backed San Diego Padres | 61c | 40.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 263 | 51.3%135 W · 128 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc96b…438abacked San Diego Padres | 61c | 40.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 274 | 52.6%144 W · 130 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed San Diego Padres | 64c | 39.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked San Diego Padres | 53c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed San Diego Padres | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed San Diego Padres | 63c | 17.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)this page
- San Diego Padres vs. Milwaukee BrewersMilwaukee Brewers won
- San Diego Padres vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 10.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 11.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 5.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 6.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.