Ligue 1 · resolved market
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2025-08-31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x64ac48d3359007d2551d4ec08771a504b4cf717b2d191513c0c9624b6a34b304
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,205
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,182
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,205 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf1a4…819fbacked Yes | 39c | 512.82$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa329…26a2backed Yes | 41c | 500.56$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e86…93c2backed No | 60c | 499.94$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.97 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 37cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed No | 60c | 338.19$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.3 | 47 | 72.3%34 W · 13 L | +7.4wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 38c | 318$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.44 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 39c | 311.59$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.49 | 231 | 53.2%123 W · 108 L | +16.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc71e…f450backed No | 61c | 310$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.9 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdf…edf9backed No | 65c | 269.95$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.45 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.9wins | -0.36per pick | 74cpaid | -46%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe505…fadbbacked Yes | 40c | 187.5$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 62c | 160.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.27 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 24c | 132.53$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.31 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87ea…f625backed No | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d40…f95abacked Yes | 40c | 83.88$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.55 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.33per pick | 47cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Yes | 24c | 81.43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 202 | 32.7%66 W · 136 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Yes | 15c | 77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcef7…e7d7backed No | 66c | 73$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.82 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cf…f5aebacked Yes | 40c | 68.25$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60e6…9e8abacked Yes | 37c | 63.27$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.41 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fe…ba40backed No | 64c | 57.14$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3149…9762backed Yes | 40c | 47.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x095c…4bf6backed Yes | 40c | 47.28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 60c | 46.5$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 232 | 60.8%141 W · 91 L | +15.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea1…308cbacked Yes | 40c | 35.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1781…a0ecbacked Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b2…c24ebacked No | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2025-08-31?this page
- Will Olympique Lyonnais vs. Olympique de Marseille end in a draw?No won
- Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2025-08-31?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.