Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump issue an executive order on February 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x64ad7e44a045a55bb51e1a8bb3f92f7de50952c27bbf5be484ffb87fd14babb3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,847
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,540
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,847 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3979…f49ebacked No | 1c | 5,000$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 4c | 1,333$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.32 | 385 | 9.4%36 W · 349 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed No | 8c | 931.1$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.41 | 141 | 35.5%50 W · 91 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0347…e0e5backed Yes | 69c | 753.57$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.57 | 41 | 19.5%8 W · 33 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed No | 31c | 749.98$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.49 | 151 | 55%83 W · 68 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 8c | 449.97$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52b6…5079backed No | 9c | 330$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a25…81d1backed Yes | 69c | 235.71$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed No | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 161 | 44.7%72 W · 89 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2880…fa70backed Yes | 73c | 182.63$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.81 | 96 | 41.7%40 W · 56 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed No | 31c | 168.29$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.61 | 286 | 36.7%105 W · 181 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6426…bb53backed No | 7c | 152.47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52c9…7f71backed No | 31c | 144$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3975…626abacked Yes | 71c | 120.43$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.33 | 43 | 86%37 W · 6 L | +8.4wins | +0.20per pick | 66cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 16c | 112$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7960…f8a8backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1514…2624backed Yes | 76c | 90.52$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6336…c1a2backed Yes | 67c | 58$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdeea…8921backed No | 33c | 58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad4…dc12backed No | 44c | 57.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ef…9fe8backed No | 50c | 38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef71…b745backed Yes | 50c | 38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f7…d5e8backed Yes | 78c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +151.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x377b…84b5backed Yes | 68c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d9…d32abacked Yes | 78c | 27.96$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x798f…ab79backed Yes | 67c | 26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa192…79d6backed No | 52c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65e9…3e85backed No | 50c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6a…020ebacked Yes | 67c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3914…51d7backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7441…233cbacked Yes | 68c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef12…300dbacked Yes | 67c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf343…793cbacked Yes | 70c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +14%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.