South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Club Necaxa win on 2026-01-10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x64b1b6296cb8b59c3ec66e0b8409dbaa0b69e01e63c1bb4ab98fee863bbb7f49
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,805
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,191
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,805 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x44c5…8d45backed Yes | 70c | 9,565$6,695 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,869.58 | 313 | 49.8%156 W · 157 L | +13.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 33c | 2,278$746 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$746.3 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c3…7d73backed Yes | 45c | 2,160$974 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,185.7 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 55c | 1,932$1,059 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,058.9 | 1,091 | 55.6%607 W · 484 L | -19.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12b9…3ec2backed Yes | 70c | 1,732$1,213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$519.25 | 308 | 41.2%127 W · 181 L | +9.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Yes | 44c | 1,500$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$840 | 138 | 21%29 W · 109 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 48c | 983.37$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$507.46 | 816 | 51.6%421 W · 395 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 72c | 353.19$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.33 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 49c | 338$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.34 | 234 | 35%82 W · 152 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8790…010bbacked Yes | 73c | 317.14$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.63 | 212 | 51.9%110 W · 102 L | +14.3wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x92ae…a7b0backed No | 51c | 196.47$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed No | 24c | 186.05$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.2 | 495 | 35.4%175 W · 320 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…f40ebacked No | 56c | 173.01$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d7…ba47backed No | 54c | 172.95$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.21 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Yes | 42c | 150$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 88 | 42%37 W · 51 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 19c | 117.41$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.42 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 68c | 116.08$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 1,428 | 51.8%740 W · 688 L | +22.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 20c | 100.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 373 | 55.2%206 W · 167 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed No | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 398 | 53%211 W · 187 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked No | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 312 | 26.6%83 W · 229 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4f…243cbacked No | 50c | 86$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6723…a540backed No | 51c | 82$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.82 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…f545backed No | 19c | 77.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f78…bfcabacked No | 19c | 76.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98cd…9417backed Yes | 51c | 72$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.28 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8b…d3d6backed No | 22c | 63.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 38cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5404…5e58backed Yes | 57c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.9 | 138 | 39.9%55 W · 83 L | +7.3wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3839…a64dbacked No | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked No | 21c | 49.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 102 | 36.3%37 W · 65 L | -7.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.2 | 163 | 47.9%78 W · 85 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c40…7c34backed Yes | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x279b…7d84backed Yes | 50c | 39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 77c | 38.87$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.94 | 1,253 | 56.2%704 W · 549 L | +73.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x61bb…aca7backed No | 51c | 38.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf43d…1e75backed Yes | 61c | 32.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 48c | 26.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 130 | 62.3%81 W · 49 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…ec86backed No | 54c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaebc…bb17backed Yes | 50c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Club Necaxa win on 2026-01-10?this page
- Will Club Santos Laguna vs. Club Necaxa end in a draw?No won
- Will Club Santos Laguna win on 2026-01-10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.