Tennis · resolved market
French Open: Norrie vs. Fearnley
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6504bb13014430d370581136341949cb6eb6d7204309157460c62d710aa07621
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Norrieof Norrie, Fearnley
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,158
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,271
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,158 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Fearnley | 22c | 5,139$1,147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,147.2 | 391 | 44.2%173 W · 218 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0425…65d0backed Norrie | 77c | 5,071$3,887 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,184.05 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 71cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Fearnley | 24c | 4,170$981 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$981.44 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67b5…9f1ebacked Norrie | 77c | 4,038$3,129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$909.52 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Fearnley | 22c | 3,901$862 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$861.94 | 100 | 46%46 W · 54 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c8…44fbbacked Fearnley | 15c | 3,643$532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532.13 | 98 | 26.5%26 W · 72 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -33%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x733d…1ae7backed Fearnley | 44c | 2,984$1,313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,313.03 | 90 | 44.4%40 W · 50 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Fearnley | 43c | 2,899$1,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,250.09 | 65 | 30.8%20 W · 45 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Norrie | 56c | 2,482$1,388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,094.25 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37bb…06e8backed Fearnley | 21c | 1,100$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.5 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa2…4d22backed Norrie | 57c | 1,083$617 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465.75 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Norrie | 58c | 1,000$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb4…acb6backed Norrie | 74c | 910$672 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.77 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbedb…8687backed Norrie | 78c | 880.59$686 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.73 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb46d…7093backed Fearnley | 20c | 757.79$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.55 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Norrie | 58c | 600$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253 | 819 | 38.9%319 W · 500 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x420e…e3c9backed Norrie | 59c | 550$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.5 | 122 | 56.6%69 W · 53 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a06…1e43backed Fearnley | 20c | 502.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f65…d7aebacked Fearnley | 22c | 500$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 65 | 35.4%23 W · 42 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5327…3b80backed Fearnley | 13c | 379.84$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 120 | 38.3%46 W · 74 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbaa…cbeabacked Norrie | 56c | 357.14$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.14 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.22per pick | 49cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…ae63backed Fearnley | 36c | 300$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109 | 527 | 50.3%265 W · 262 L | -6.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Fearnley | 29c | 224$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.34 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd4…ce48backed Fearnley | 47c | 185.11$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 98 | 41.8%41 W · 57 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Norrie | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 480 | 43.3%208 W · 272 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Norrie | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed Fearnley | 21c | 123.2$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dab…9a14backed Norrie | 74c | 118.12$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.71 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.18per pick | 65cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Norrie | 80c | 101$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9315…89acbacked Norrie | 57c | 79.84$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.33 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.17per pick | 44cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Norrie | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 93 | 59.1%55 W · 38 L | +8.0wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea1c…0868backed Norrie | 75c | 14.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.67 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.