Dota2 · resolved market
Game Handicap: Liquid (-1.5) vs Heroic (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x65128e736dd4fc5c796e4cc9d15495981ef7148f20130345922005ec7ca736dd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Liquidof Team Liquid, Heroic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,690
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,690 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3763…345fbacked Heroic | 68c | 1,000$676 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$676 | 421 | 45.4%191 W · 230 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f97…4059backed Team Liquid | 32c | 889.56$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$604.9 | 91 | 53.8%49 W · 42 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c0…23d8backed Team Liquid | 40c | 668.95$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.37 | 239 | 57.3%137 W · 102 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a4f…9b0cbacked Heroic | 44c | 601.61$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.71 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Team Liquid | 55c | 573.1$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.26 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8052…1124backed Team Liquid | 43c | 505$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.85 | 171 | 46.8%80 W · 91 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Heroic | 57c | 500$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc30…c8a5backed Team Liquid | 40c | 375$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 235 | 29.4%69 W · 166 L | -21.5wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xabe5…d99abacked Heroic | 62c | 200$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 386 | 49.5%191 W · 195 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa76e…dcb6backed Team Liquid | 38c | 200$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124 | 341 | 54.5%186 W · 155 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2fbb…7e44backed Team Liquid | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 151 | 51%77 W · 74 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Heroic | 36c | 151.25$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.45 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Heroic | 60c | 144.85$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.77 | 605 | 42.6%258 W · 347 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Team Liquid | 38c | 118.16$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.33 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad72…4f5ebacked Team Liquid | 40c | 84.69$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 368 | 51.6%190 W · 178 L | +25.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Heroic | 60c | 71.06$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.74 | 187 | 39%73 W · 114 L | -9.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Team Liquid | 38c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 91 | 56%51 W · 40 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Heroic | 62c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 224 | 56.3%126 W · 98 L | +11.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x101f…b386backed Team Liquid | 40c | 29.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.51 | 321 | 54.8%176 W · 145 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8548…e4c1backed Team Liquid | 60c | 24.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03e8…ced5backed Heroic | 62c | 20.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Team Liquid | 61c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 137 | 33.6%46 W · 91 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9095…89bcbacked Team Liquid | 64c | 17.97$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.47 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: Liquid (-1.5) vs Heroic (+1.5)this page
- Dota 2: Heroic vs Team Liquid (BO3) - PGL Wallachia PlayoffsTeam Liquid won
- Dota 2: Heroic vs Team Liquid - Game 1 WinnerTeam Liquid won
- Dota 2: Heroic vs Team Liquid - Game 2 WinnerTeam Liquid won
- Game 1: Both Teams Beat Roshan?No won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.