MLB · resolved market
Spread: Athletics (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x651e7f1abec20b8e7a8525d51fd5bc5c5a943f6c301b27d1c5b7f2adacd179c3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Boston Red Soxof Athletics, Boston Red Sox
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,316
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,939
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,316 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Athletics | 41c | 1,136$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467.42 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Boston Red Sox | 74c | 618.44$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.76 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d4…6b58backed Boston Red Sox | 39c | 463.64$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.32 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Boston Red Sox | 48c | 396.78$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.32 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Athletics | 36c | 282.06$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.58 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb8b…da36backed Boston Red Sox | 43c | 240.77$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.24 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +103%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc22e…eab8backed Athletics | 31c | 190.47$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 488 | 51.6%252 W · 236 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Boston Red Sox | 34c | 137.05$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.45 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Boston Red Sox | 63c | 130.89$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.79 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Athletics | 57c | 72.43$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.55 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc8…e209backed Athletics | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 461 | 52.1%240 W · 221 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x212b…0ba5backed Athletics | 32c | 63.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 536 | 55.8%299 W · 237 L | +22.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…7f1abacked Athletics | 36c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 412 | 36.7%151 W · 261 L | -16.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Boston Red Sox | 73c | 54.32$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.67 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Athletics | 27c | 54.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed2…0ddabacked Athletics | 28c | 51.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 577 | 47.7%275 W · 302 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf8c…8f2bbacked Boston Red Sox | 43c | 47.93$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.37 | 65 | 52.3%34 W · 31 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec7…4b43backed Boston Red Sox | 48c | 45.56$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.69 | 111 | 53.2%59 W · 52 L | +8.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f5…42cabacked Boston Red Sox | 75c | 44.38$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.14 | 55 | 65.5%36 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Athletics | 29c | 43.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Boston Red Sox | 47c | 41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.9 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…58e1backed Athletics | 31c | 31.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 462 | 55.8%258 W · 204 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Boston Red Sox | 72c | 31.02$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5998…b5a8backed Boston Red Sox | 79c | 25.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Boston Red Sox | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)this page
- Boston Red Sox vs. AthleticsAthletics won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Athletics: O/U 5.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Athletics: O/U 6.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Athletics: O/U 7.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Athletics (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)Athletics won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. AthleticsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.