MLB · resolved market
Boston Red Sox vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcede7da052154d84f2a6b625bedc01c1d4f6bb627fc6ff45c529c0f8c71e2a2f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,802
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,412
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,802 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe55a…ecf7backed Over | 52c | 15,436$8,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,009.94 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca1…ddcdbacked Over | 56c | 8,918$4,996 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,995.51 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Under | 44c | 5,682$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,181.82 | 390 | 47.4%185 W · 205 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 48c | 5,402$2,611 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,791.96 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 52c | 5,021$2,619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,401.9 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 48c | 4,726$2,269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,457.02 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1a…0df6backed Over | 52c | 4,215$2,194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,194.23 | 154 | 51.9%80 W · 74 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 49c | 3,634$1,778 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,855.72 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Over | 55c | 3,613$2,004 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,003.51 | 694 | 53.6%372 W · 322 L | +14.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf1…b5afbacked Under | 47c | 3,291$1,547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,744.06 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 48c | 2,960$1,411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,411.12 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b5…941abacked Over | 51c | 2,871$1,462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,461.53 | 237 | 58.6%139 W · 98 L | +16.9wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Under | 44c | 2,222$978 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,244.32 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 48c | 1,584$757 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$827.11 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 49c | 1,294$631 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$662.81 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa804…2a75backed Under | 48c | 1,216$584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$632.13 | 291 | 47.1%137 W · 154 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 46c | 1,211$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650.75 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 44c | 1,080$473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$606.78 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf636…5465backed Under | 48c | 1,042$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.67 | 99 | 56.6%56 W · 43 L | +8.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Under | 45c | 1,024$461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.01 | 644 | 52.2%336 W · 308 L | +26.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73e8…cd6fbacked Over | 50c | 995.28$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.64 | 360 | 48.6%175 W · 185 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Over | 56c | 892.86$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 527 | 50.1%264 W · 263 L | +19.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 46c | 820$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.54 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc2…a9ebbacked Under | 48c | 606.18$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 47c | 526.53$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.05 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Over | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 866 | 53%459 W · 407 L | +16.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 48c | 500$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.81 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8efa…894cbacked Under | 45c | 454$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.7 | 454 | 45.2%205 W · 249 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 52c | 346.41$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.55 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Under | 48c | 308.5$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.7 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Under | 48c | 300$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.5 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 49c | 224.51$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.5 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc8…e209backed Over | 54c | 220.29$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.01 | 461 | 52.1%240 W · 221 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc22e…eab8backed Over | 56c | 213.45$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 488 | 51.6%252 W · 236 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42c7…c415backed Over | 56c | 182.48$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.19 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd439…21d3backed Over | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…d6ebbacked Over | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 372 | 56.5%210 W · 162 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39b2…157cbacked Under | 48c | 157.89$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.1 | 147 | 50.3%74 W · 73 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa7…3767backed Under | 48c | 156.25$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.25 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 46c | 139.99$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.09 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 43c | 132.73$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.58 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Over | 56c | 130.99$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.35 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +28.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Over | 48c | 116.85$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.09 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x844a…f6d7backed Under | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 47c | 96.5$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.14 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x237f…362ebacked Over | 56c | 89.23$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.97 | 87 | 46%40 W · 47 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0977…53ccbacked Under | 48c | 86.77$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.12 | 292 | 50.7%148 W · 144 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Over | 49c | 86.43$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.93 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x212b…0ba5backed Over | 55c | 73.1$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 536 | 55.8%299 W · 237 L | +22.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed Over | 49c | 66$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.54 | 342 | 55.3%189 W · 153 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…7f1abacked Under | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 412 | 36.7%151 W · 261 L | -16.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9b…7a9fbacked Over | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | -10.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x757c…d1bfbacked Under | 47c | 52.66$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.91 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Under | 48c | 50.31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.16 | 403 | 41.4%167 W · 236 L | -20.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1e…befebacked Over | 55c | 45.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 285 | 53%151 W · 134 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 47c | 44$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.13 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcbcb…65fcbacked Under | 49c | 41.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.02 | 118 | 52.5%62 W · 56 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Under | 51c | 40.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.09 | 674 | 44.1%297 W · 377 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 49c | 40.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.81 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 55c | 39.63$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.77 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c80…e19bbacked Over | 57c | 35.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 224 | 50%112 W · 112 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5998…b5a8backed Under | 44c | 34.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.42 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8452…a766backed Under | 45c | 26.61$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.62 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…58e1backed Over | 57c | 26.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 462 | 55.8%258 W · 204 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3443…64e9backed Under | 77c | 24.82$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.62 | 70 | 80%56 W · 14 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 50c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.12 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa94…b3f4backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 52c | 19.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Boston Red Sox vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5this page
- Boston Red Sox vs. AthleticsAthletics won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Athletics: O/U 5.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Athletics: O/U 6.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Athletics: O/U 7.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Athletics (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)Athletics won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. AthleticsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.