Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on August 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x65296afda9e574e8e9203aad625fe38df626b3cb034e28cb7b54bda3555b1c90
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,610
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,728
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,610 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf3a7…2657backed Yes | 10c | 288.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.05 | 183 | 28.4%52 W · 131 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba9d…46efbacked Yes | 35c | 252.02$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 49 | 28.6%14 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b25…a34ebacked Yes | 13c | 240$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dc7…038cbacked Yes | 13c | 174.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e14…7ef7backed Yes | 35c | 95.58$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.34 | 46 | 26.1%12 W · 34 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 64c | 90.56$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.62 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 65c | 85.89$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.67 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…78d8backed No | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 249 | 42.6%106 W · 143 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a5f…1a13backed Yes | 34c | 73.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -7.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 66c | 72.73$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.98 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 30c | 70.21$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.94 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 34c | 56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 66c | 55.01$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.83 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 36c | 54.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 36c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 26c | 51.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x59c6…e6d4backed No | 66c | 45.53$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.53 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 67c | 37.54$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.45 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec3…a081backed Yes | 32c | 36.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 175 | 24.6%43 W · 132 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 28c | 36.76$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked No | 60c | 35.17$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.07 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x914d…dd11backed Yes | 37c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa12d…4c1bbacked No | 61c | 31.52$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.29 | 202 | 41.1%83 W · 119 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 67c | 31$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.28 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed No | 66c | 30.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.33 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8629…ce84backed No | 65c | 30.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.59 | 82 | 61%50 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7240…9906backed Yes | 37c | 29.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 64c | 28.3$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.28 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9548…1002backed No | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 76cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe5…91aabacked No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 71c | 22.17$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 77c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed No | 63c | 19.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 67c | 17.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 70c | 17.59$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed No | 68c | 15.33$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1073…d8babacked No | 72c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 48 | 79.2%38 W · 10 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on August 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on August 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on August 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.