Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on August 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9de682ef6c69a66862e0cd1614358ef719ce7a9a8a352c9f0b6722f4d2b43eb1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,269
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,089
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,269 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 40c | 505.18$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.76 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba9d…46efbacked Yes | 23c | 287.7$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.7 | 49 | 28.6%14 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 16c | 252.97$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.47 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 20c | 214.98$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.13 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 16c | 189.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.13 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 46c | 163.04$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.51 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 74c | 135.13$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.84 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 74c | 120.92$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.76 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 73c | 120.52$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.42 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 57c | 111.6$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.33 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 12c | 110.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 37c | 109.37$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.43 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e14…7ef7backed Yes | 29c | 99.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 46 | 26.1%12 W · 34 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 13c | 93.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked Yes | 14c | 73.85$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.69 | 264 | 42.4%112 W · 152 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 54c | 71.46$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.52 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 59c | 70.37$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.66 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97c5…018bbacked No | 70c | 64.5$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 46 | 65.2%30 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 53c | 56.13$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.38 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa89c…a608backed No | 80c | 52$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 74cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 27c | 46.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.91 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3a…8792backed Yes | 26c | 46.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.06 | 180 | 45.6%82 W · 98 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 72c | 41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.51 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 38c | 40.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.99 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x186d…8bfebacked Yes | 77c | 39.74$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.14 | 191 | 66.5%127 W · 64 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 28c | 39.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 57c | 38.81$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 36c | 35.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 29c | 35$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 69c | 32.78$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.73 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaafb…e81ebacked No | 74c | 29.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 152 | 75.7%115 W · 37 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18c3…2a14backed Yes | 76c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed Yes | 70c | 25.94$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 56c | 24.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 70c | 24.14$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7861…3084backed Yes | 78c | 23.44$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.15 | 152 | 70.4%107 W · 45 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…9fb8backed Yes | 68c | 22.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 270 | 37.4%101 W · 169 L | +12.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 48c | 21.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 55c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 61c | 20.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.29 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 65c | 20.56$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a40…67abbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -3.6wins | -0.36per pick | 76cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x91d8…1c0bbacked Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.85 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 19.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 76c | 15.72$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.72 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 65c | 15.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a2b…4b88backed Yes | 75c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on August 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on August 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.