Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on August 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x652dde7b9013f92fde1ebe0d94b23ba9f64af6902a0f31f122f2ff7132fdc08e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,520
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,488
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,520 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 64c | 656.95$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.51 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed Yes | 36c | 632.07$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.41 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 65c | 452.88$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.71 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 39c | 259.53$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.88 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 35c | 192.36$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.26 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 57c | 162.06$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.76 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x297a…3dd8backed Yes | 78c | 142.86$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 67c | 133.44$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.61 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 53c | 129.97$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.36 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 35c | 94.2$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.33 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 21c | 91.92$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe59a…1dbfbacked Yes | 60c | 82.87$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 63c | 79.87$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.27 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 35c | 68$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed Yes | 30c | 67.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 28c | 66.07$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.82 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 35c | 62.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 35c | 61.57$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.55 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x878c…c12abacked Yes | 78c | 50.56$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.43 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5548…9cc6backed No | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.4 | 197 | 57.4%113 W · 84 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 68c | 45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.56 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…395bbacked Yes | 34c | 44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 336 | 28.9%97 W · 239 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 39c | 41.22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 62c | 39.63$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.06 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed0c…fccdbacked Yes | 76c | 39.44$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.97 | 126 | 60.3%76 W · 50 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 37c | 39.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22a9…0a1abacked No | 63c | 39$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 70cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 37c | 36.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 37c | 33.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 71c | 32.97$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.71 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 65c | 32.08$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.39 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 64c | 31.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x272e…3a34backed Yes | 40c | 31.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 64c | 29.17$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.44 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b58…d734backed Yes | 36c | 28.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 155 | 34.2%53 W · 102 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa397…7817backed Yes | 36c | 27.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 140 | 53.6%75 W · 65 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes | 45c | 27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 48c | 22.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x42cb…0abdbacked Yes | 49c | 22.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 52c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.46 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 61c | 16.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 79c | 13.01$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.74 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on August 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 102-103°F on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 104-105°F on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on August 3?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.