Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on August 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1a76c1e23fddefc6c743fa4efa8c4ed25f47c70db69ea0e54e1688940828312f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,319
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,626
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,319 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5376…e781backed No | 1c | 2,123$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 59c | 1,169$693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$693.03 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 22c | 551.97$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.91 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 28c | 528.37$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.41 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 49c | 408.97$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.09 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 26c | 398.79$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.89 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 54c | 343.87$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.17 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 45c | 336.55$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.55 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 34c | 334.24$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.02 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 53c | 228.15$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.99 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…16f9backed Yes | 60c | 203.58$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.14 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 60c | 179.22$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.89 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked Yes | 65c | 174.81$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.47 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 49c | 127$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.77 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 44c | 113.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.16 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 57c | 112.63$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.7 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce07…5c3cbacked Yes | 31c | 109.94$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.2 | 310 | 62.6%194 W · 116 L | +38.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1b29…f288backed Yes | 52c | 107.78$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.78 | 100 | 44%44 W · 56 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 51c | 105.81$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 48c | 103.92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.88 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 45c | 101.52$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.84 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c59…0c2cbacked No | 48c | 99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.82 | 97 | 59.8%58 W · 39 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 67c | 97.34$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.34 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 67c | 93.16$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.32 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 32c | 92.95$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.42 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 36c | 80.91$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.78 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5548…9cc6backed Yes | 27c | 80.78$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.7 | 197 | 57.4%113 W · 84 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed No | 70c | 77.71$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.13 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 51c | 75$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.95 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 50c | 72.03$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.98 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb54e…b2a7backed No | 52c | 71.82$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.18 | 135 | 53.3%72 W · 63 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 40c | 70.8$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.13 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 66c | 69.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.4 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4910…bd79backed Yes | 50c | 67$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.56 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x341b…b929backed Yes | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 57c | 59.85$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.18 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 41c | 58$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.18 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed Yes | 27c | 57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.74 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…a526backed Yes | 70c | 54.94$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.62 | 154 | 66.9%103 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 77c | 54.09$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.58 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 52c | 52.71$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.41 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…34c4backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 292 | 81.5%238 W · 54 L | +27.9wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d0…d991backed Yes | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 53c | 46.41$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.74 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 79c | 46$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.34 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 50c | 44.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.35 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 58c | 42.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 50c | 41.82$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.91 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 67c | 39.28$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x272e…3a34backed Yes | 48c | 38.33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.93 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 53c | 38.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x367f…ee28backed No | 53c | 38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 56c | 37$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.61 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 39c | 36.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 42c | 36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.01 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 75c | 34$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.43 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 53c | 34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 54c | 33.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 72c | 33.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 50c | 33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 52c | 33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a85…70f5backed Yes | 33c | 32.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.06 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 34c | 32.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e9…0208backed Yes | 47c | 31.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.61 | 89 | 47.2%42 W · 47 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 66c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.32 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 72c | 29.26$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 41c | 28.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 56c | 27.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 74c | 26.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 60c | 26.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 45c | 26.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 65c | 22.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.76 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 63c | 22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…6ff8backed No | 48c | 21.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 193 | 45.6%88 W · 105 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc9…6dfdbacked No | 80c | 20.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.29 | 205 | 74.6%153 W · 52 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…8834backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d77…7004backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4647…d97fbacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 105 | 60%63 W · 42 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b8d…f707backed Yes | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce5…6233backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 135 | 59.3%80 W · 55 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf20b…49c5backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02be…fb0ebacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a15…f847backed No | 53c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -51%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 72c | 19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 70c | 18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed0c…fccdbacked Yes | 59c | 17.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.18 | 126 | 60.3%76 W · 50 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x878c…c12abacked No | 75c | 15.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on August 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 102-103°F on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 104-105°F on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on August 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.