CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs MIBR (BO3)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x65490cf3765177e23dfa0b1b4b4f990465de022038874747282d732b2c39c000
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Astralisof Astralis, MIBR
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $103,560
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $97,684
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $103,560 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd0b4…fed6backed Astralis | 71c | 24,000$17,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,959.99 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +4.2wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +71.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc350…3669backed Astralis | 75c | 17,042$12,858 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,184 | 116 | 55.2%64 W · 52 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9b…414dbacked MIBR | 25c | 16,940$4,235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,234.91 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac75…1319backed MIBR | 29c | 16,800$4,872 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,872 | 164 | 49.4%81 W · 83 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d58…9a15backed MIBR | 29c | 16,474$4,739 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,739.1 | 144 | 41.7%60 W · 84 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9823…02dbbacked Astralis | 74c | 7,294$5,416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,878.27 | 470 | 55.7%262 W · 208 L | +27.7wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe766…404dbacked MIBR | 16c | 4,300$688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$688 | 139 | 47.5%66 W · 73 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a3…b1dfbacked MIBR | 30c | 4,209$1,247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,247.21 | 130 | 50%65 W · 65 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed MIBR | 28c | 3,351$922 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$921.61 | 1,259 | 42.5%535 W · 724 L | +20.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed MIBR | 30c | 2,500$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750.09 | 670 | 41.8%280 W · 390 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6408…d2aebacked Astralis | 76c | 2,070$1,565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.17 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.15per pick | 56cpaid | -26%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed32…20d6backed Astralis | 71c | 1,971$1,390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$580.79 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d9…4d8bbacked Astralis | 71c | 1,773$1,259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$514.17 | 154 | 52.6%81 W · 73 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked MIBR | 30c | 1,549$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.7 | 1,262 | 46.9%592 W · 670 L | -34.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed MIBR | 29c | 1,272$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.08 | 859 | 46.1%396 W · 463 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2418…66c8backed MIBR | 29c | 1,252$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363 | 608 | 53.3%324 W · 284 L | +20.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed MIBR | 30c | 1,200$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 972 | 30%292 W · 680 L | -23.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5388…4d5abacked Astralis | 70c | 1,200$840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360 | 220 | 56.4%124 W · 96 L | +19.9wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Astralis | 72c | 1,069$768 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.26 | 755 | 50.6%382 W · 373 L | +17.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcccc…dbddbacked MIBR | 29c | 1,064$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.56 | 171 | 48%82 W · 89 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed MIBR | 33c | 922.51$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.68 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8541…a367backed MIBR | 18c | 670$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 283 | 44.2%125 W · 158 L | +17.1wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed MIBR | 29c | 642.51$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.59 | 216 | 39.8%86 W · 130 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96c8…695fbacked MIBR | 16c | 625$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ee…697bbacked Astralis | 68c | 618.21$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.02 | 98 | 61.2%60 W · 38 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Astralis | 69c | 591.79$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.04 | 298 | 55%164 W · 134 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Astralis | 73c | 526$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.38 | 263 | 51.3%135 W · 128 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed MIBR | 19c | 522$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.18 | 463 | 40.8%189 W · 274 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c5a…7f2dbacked MIBR | 18c | 512.57$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.97 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.20per pick | 51cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked MIBR | 28c | 499.98$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.99 | 815 | 44.4%362 W · 453 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Astralis | 70c | 469.91$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.66 | 211 | 56.9%120 W · 91 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d9a…4e25backed Astralis | 71c | 400$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116 | 141 | 48.9%69 W · 72 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1568…c958backed MIBR | 18c | 365.34$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.6 | 279 | 50.2%140 W · 139 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x877e…b283backed MIBR | 14c | 314.29$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa856…3964backed MIBR | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 222 | 42.8%95 W · 127 L | -12.5wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4627…7c23backed Astralis | 71c | 188.73$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.73 | 374 | 48.4%181 W · 193 L | -16.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1939…22e8backed MIBR | 18c | 170$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.3 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Astralis | 72c | 152.78$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.78 | 234 | 54.7%128 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked MIBR | 10c | 140$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,181 | 22.5%266 W · 915 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf58d…914abacked Astralis | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 92 | 52.2%48 W · 44 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb2…67c8backed MIBR | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3731…405fbacked MIBR | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fd…5b3cbacked Astralis | 72c | 87.56$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.52 | 116 | 44%51 W · 65 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f22…be14backed MIBR | 35c | 70.83$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 76 | 60.5%46 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x498b…ca86backed Astralis | 72c | 70.26$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.67 | 206 | 59.2%122 W · 84 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b2c…5e10backed Astralis | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 334 | 56.6%189 W · 145 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e6…53b2backed Astralis | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde01…b276backed Astralis | 72c | 41.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ab…f282backed Astralis | 60c | 37.5$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1,089 | 50.9%554 W · 535 L | +38.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fc5…197fbacked Astralis | 69c | 29.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd612…0bc1backed Astralis | 72c | 29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 115 | 65.2%75 W · 40 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc5…ee5abacked Astralis | 72c | 20.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 113 | 40.7%46 W · 67 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…8ca5backed Astralis | 72c | 15.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcda0…a51abacked Astralis | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.