Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in London be 22°C on August 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x656fcffde67c2d641d050ebe65f9b93515df07ed58bccce2138e2b40146520d7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,962
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,998
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,962 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed No | 1c | 1,100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 47c | 980.93$463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$517.93 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 56c | 393.37$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.75 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76f4…82dabacked No | 50c | 365.86$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.6 | 84 | 38.1%32 W · 52 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 50c | 249.56$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.78 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 48c | 238.78$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.97 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed Yes | 52c | 177.55$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.95 | 241 | 41.1%99 W · 142 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 48c | 144.8$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.59 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfb…decbbacked Yes | 56c | 102.32$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.32 | 137 | 46%63 W · 74 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95b3…bfebbacked Yes | 31c | 98.19$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.19 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…a26fbacked Yes | 51c | 87.29$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.13 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 50c | 84.33$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.78 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 45c | 80.16$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.18 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 40c | 71.88$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.99 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9016…e4babacked Yes | 53c | 66.97$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.57 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +77.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc780…40a4backed No | 59c | 63.66$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.3 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…6c5bbacked Yes | 51c | 62.2$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.48 | 125 | 30.4%38 W · 87 L | -8.4wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2194…ae18backed Yes | 45c | 59.37$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.73 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…e1b7backed No | 46c | 58.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.35 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 41c | 47.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 49c | 45.46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7968…615abacked Yes | 41c | 41.61$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 63c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 58c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 56c | 38.28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.7 | 207 | 39.1%81 W · 126 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 51c | 35.22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.22 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked No | 36c | 34.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 182 | 47.3%86 W · 96 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a4f…f83bbacked Yes | 33c | 33.89$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.71 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72c8…c4b6backed Yes | 59c | 33.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.63 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 42c | 30.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb576…d959backed Yes | 58c | 30.81$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.94 | 77 | 33.8%26 W · 51 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb699…4e20backed No | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 213 | 52.1%111 W · 102 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 48c | 21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05f7…22bcbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 131 | 67.2%88 W · 43 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d62…144dbacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | -19.6wins | -0.33per pick | 59cpaid | -61%equal weight | 24-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0082…c023backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63a1…0212backed No | 70c | 19.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 252 | 58.7%148 W · 104 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 22°C on August 14?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 20°C on August 14?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 21°C on August 14?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 23°C on August 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.