Dota2 · resolved market
Game Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x65ab283f277934e817594fcd17f57393aca14326edf21f32de404ab54d6cd80c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Auroraof Aurora, Team Falcons
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,063
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,030
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,063 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xea79…a9ccbacked Team Falcons | 75c | 3,981$2,986 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,985.63 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc40…89cfbacked Aurora | 47c | 2,115$994 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,120.97 | 360 | 41.4%149 W · 211 L | -22.2wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd507…a6ddbacked Aurora | 25c | 2,066$516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,549.34 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Team Falcons | 23c | 1,199$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.04 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed Aurora | 79c | 861.31$677 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.13 | 430 | 67%288 W · 142 L | +31.9wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf437…ff9bbacked Aurora | 25c | 764$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$573 | 321 | 48.3%155 W · 166 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa04b…f09bbacked Team Falcons | 62c | 686.19$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.12 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Aurora | 48c | 639.37$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.95 | 966 | 45.1%436 W · 530 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e1…e25abacked Aurora | 25c | 575.71$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.78 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +95.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc49b…70c0backed Aurora | 33c | 256.12$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.25 | 630 | 32.5%205 W · 425 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Aurora | 38c | 188$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.56 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c2…a16ebacked Team Falcons | 79c | 124.91$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.74 | 381 | 67.2%256 W · 125 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79c9…b2f1backed Aurora | 21c | 121.28$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.8 | 84 | 32.1%27 W · 57 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Aurora | 20c | 112.85$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.2 | 562 | 43.2%243 W · 319 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3d…e051backed Aurora | 25c | 95.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.63 | 30 | 6.7%2 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e3…0022backed Team Falcons | 80c | 62.61$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.09 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -49%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3322…7dc2backed Aurora | 24c | 61.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.66 | 81 | 48.1%39 W · 42 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa76e…dcb6backed Aurora | 22c | 52.56$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 341 | 54.5%186 W · 155 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x265b…2d05backed Team Falcons | 78c | 50.61$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.47 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18c6…8e8fbacked Team Falcons | 43c | 50.27$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e56…eca5backed Team Falcons | 77c | 40$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe24b…5142backed Team Falcons | 76c | 37.21$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.28 | 71 | 70.4%50 W · 21 L | +8.6wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Team Falcons | 55c | 31.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5870…276ebacked Team Falcons | 77c | 28.45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Aurora | 43c | 27.68$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.78 | 273 | 57.1%156 W · 117 L | +9.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa1…d5dabacked Aurora | 58c | 25.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.59 | 107 | 28%30 W · 77 L | -8.2wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa431…3867backed Team Falcons | 80c | 19.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…5445backed Team Falcons | 74c | 13.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5)this page
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Wallachia PlayoffsAurora won
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Falcons - Game 1 WinnerAurora won
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Falcons - Game 2 WinnerAurora won
- Game Handicap: FLC (-1.5) vs Aurora (+1.5)Aurora won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.