Dota2 · resolved market
Games Total: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8c04d507b34faba1b48aa180ce4ffc684792a4c3a6b6eb7ff6a5a6efc8bddf28
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,214
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,808
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,214 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4337…8882backed Under | 48c | 9,145$4,390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,755.33 | 168 | 42.9%72 W · 96 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef27…381bbacked Over | 52c | 6,724$3,496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,496.32 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4667…cab0backed Over | 51c | 5,056$2,578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,578.49 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfd…8d75backed Under | 49c | 2,908$1,425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,483.18 | 242 | 51.7%125 W · 117 L | +21.0wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x51f9…19a0backed Over | 55c | 2,043$1,122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,122.06 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c01…e7d0backed Under | 49c | 1,962$961 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000.42 | 123 | 50.4%62 W · 61 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Over | 47c | 1,679$783 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$783.36 | 966 | 45.1%436 W · 530 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4da…1772backed Under | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Over | 51c | 700$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357 | 324 | 41.7%135 W · 189 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc40…89cfbacked Under | 49c | 683.43$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.55 | 360 | 41.4%149 W · 211 L | -22.2wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe647…2040backed Over | 52c | 672.35$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.62 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf592…9872backed Over | 52c | 653.69$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.92 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +2.9wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe74…a70ebacked Under | 48c | 615.01$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.8 | 131 | 45.8%60 W · 71 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed Under | 50c | 600$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 805 | 44.6%359 W · 446 L | -25.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xceee…d39ebacked Under | 49c | 534.5$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.25 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e87…9a3fbacked Over | 51c | 520.55$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.48 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Over | 50c | 483.55$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.77 | 223 | 63.2%141 W · 82 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed Under | 59c | 481.77$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.29 | 430 | 67%288 W · 142 L | +31.9wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Under | 45c | 376.65$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.16 | 562 | 43.2%243 W · 319 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeea8…0412backed Over | 52c | 373.54$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.24 | 89 | 46.1%41 W · 48 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc44e…7111backed Over | 55c | 361.18$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.65 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x62f8…abfebacked Under | 48c | 317.75$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.23 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa5…ff32backed Under | 48c | 276.92$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 185 | 44.9%83 W · 102 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5a8…bf60backed Over | 52c | 268.95$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.85 | 61 | 60.7%37 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54a6…7401backed Under | 49c | 254.59$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.84 | 77 | 42.9%33 W · 44 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54e0…b02cbacked Over | 24c | 233.84$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.16 | 405 | 34.6%140 W · 265 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Under | 34c | 217.63$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.69 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0a…07fdbacked Over | 52c | 197.98$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.95 | 243 | 49%119 W · 124 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17cb…edaabacked Over | 51c | 194.12$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 52c | 193.94$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.85 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +4.3wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 44c | 127.81$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.28 | 273 | 57.1%156 W · 117 L | +9.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked Over | 51c | 119.4$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.89 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Over | 47c | 100.86$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.4 | 260 | 50.4%131 W · 129 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Over | 47c | 100.86$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.4 | 253 | 49.4%125 W · 128 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe315…113dbacked Over | 52c | 98.77$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.88 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 65cpaid | -55%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe24b…5142backed Over | 51c | 97.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 71 | 70.4%50 W · 21 L | +8.6wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ab…f282backed Over | 51c | 94.79$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.36 | 197 | 42.1%83 W · 114 L | -12.6wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Over | 50c | 73.72$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.86 | 735 | 54.7%402 W · 333 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49ec…ac1cbacked Over | 52c | 65.07$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.84 | 127 | 40.9%52 W · 75 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x252f…2561backed Over | 51c | 64.71$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 316 | 59.8%189 W · 127 L | +18.0wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked Under | 45c | 56.07$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.11 | 165 | 53.3%88 W · 77 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x355c…81c5backed Over | 52c | 56.03$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.14 | 84 | 48.8%41 W · 43 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a72…0a38backed Over | 25c | 53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 204 | 48%98 W · 106 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x05bc…eabbbacked Under | 35c | 50.62$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.9 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +4.9wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c8…a184backed Over | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 360 | 44.2%159 W · 201 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa1…d5dabacked Over | 38c | 48.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.07 | 107 | 28%30 W · 77 L | -8.2wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x127a…ca3cbacked Over | 51c | 42.08$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 87 | 51.7%45 W · 42 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b73…174ebacked Over | 52c | 41.91$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.79 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc63b…6e4ebacked Over | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 350 | 32.3%113 W · 237 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed Over | 43c | 39.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.07 | 653 | 37.2%243 W · 410 L | -15.1wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec6d…0db2backed Over | 50c | 38.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.27per pick | 54cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaf31…b162backed Over | 51c | 38.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f28…1edebacked Over | 43c | 37.66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 104 | 56.7%59 W · 45 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe51…e909backed Over | 52c | 33.13$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.23 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d0…8e0dbacked Over | 49c | 29.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 44cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x710b…93b0backed Over | 52c | 28.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 122 | 60.7%74 W · 48 L | +10.7wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…df0ebacked Over | 52c | 28.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 74 | 66.2%49 W · 25 L | +8.7wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd206…bd2abacked Under | 49c | 27.08$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.81 | 159 | 57.2%91 W · 68 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1304…551ebacked Under | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 68 | 47.1%32 W · 36 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Games Total: O/U 2.5this page
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Wallachia PlayoffsAurora won
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Falcons - Game 1 WinnerAurora won
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Falcons - Game 2 WinnerAurora won
- Game Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5)Aurora won
- Game Handicap: FLC (-1.5) vs Aurora (+1.5)Aurora won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.