TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x9f28…1ede

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
186
Categories scored
12
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: CS2, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category CS2 at 54 out of 100; worst Valorant at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Dota2last resolved Aug 23, 2026, EDT10456.7%59 W · 45 L+4.6wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 104 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit (BO5) - The International Playoffsbacked Team Spirit · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 23, 2026, EDT+96.8%+$96.84
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winnerbacked Team Liquid · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT+138.1%+$69.05
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winnerbacked Vici Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT+194.1%+$77.65
Games Total: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$40.91
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs MOUZ (BO3) - Esports World Cup Survivalbacked MOUZ · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup Survivalbacked Team Liquid · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$66Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$37.13
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - Esports World Cup Survivalbacked Rune Eaters · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT+177.8%+$106.67
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winnerbacked BetBoom Team · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffsbacked BetBoom Team · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$60
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffsbacked Team Liquid · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$35
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffsbacked BetBoom Team · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$47.14
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffsbacked LGD Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffsbacked Team Falcons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$46.15
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winnerbacked Team Yandex · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$32.5
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winnerbacked Team Yandex · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT+170.3%+$51.08
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - BLAST Slam Last Chance Qualifierbacked Aurora · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$28.33
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stagebacked PARIVISION · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Aurora (BO5) - PGL Wallachia Playoffsbacked BetBoom Team · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$36.75
Games Total: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.12
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffsbacked Team Liquid · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$38.78
Dota 2: Aurora vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffsbacked BetBoom Team · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT+113%+$38.3
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffsbacked PARIVISION · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$38.97
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffsbacked BetBoom Team · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$38.25
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffsbacked Aurora · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$40.36
Dota 2: South America Rejects vs Heroic (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffsbacked Heroic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.23
Showing 25 of 104 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Jun 20, 2026, EDT7057.1%40 W · 30 L+3.8wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+15.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
CS2 — the 70 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffsbacked Team Falcons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT+132.6%+$59.65
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffsbacked Aurora Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffsbacked Vitality · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$150
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffsbacked 9z · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffsbacked BetBoom Team · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3backed BetBoom Team · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$90
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3backed PARIVISION · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$80
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3backed 9z · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+900%+$90
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3backed BetBoom Team · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+203%+$69.03
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3backed Natus Vincere · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$15.72
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3backed FUT Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$35
Games Total: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$32.5
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3backed FURIA · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$20.67
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3backed TheMongolz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$26.27
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3backed Natus Vincere · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3backed Team Falcons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$27.58
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3backed Aurora Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$26.92
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3backed FURIA · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$19.32
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3backed FUT Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3backed MOUZ · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$27.5
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3backed BetBoom Team · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$32.5
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2backed B8 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$25.36
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2backed TYLOO · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$21
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2backed Monte · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$25.56
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2backed B8 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$42.59
Showing 25 of 70 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 10, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-19%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Belgium win on 2026-07-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will France win on 2026-07-09?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT+61.9%+$185.84
All 2 picks, newest first.
Valorant Inactivelast resolved Mar 2, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Valorant — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Valorant, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 15, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.75per pick25cpaid+300%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Government shutdown on Saturday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST+300%+$300
All 1 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+158.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+158.4%+$158.4
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 6, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$47.06
All 1 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Mar 25, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$140
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
All 1 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
All 1 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Feb 15, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the World team win the 2026 NBA All-Star Game?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST-100%-$80
All 1 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Feb 19, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Lol — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LoL: DN Freecs vs DRX (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffsbacked DRX · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2026, EST-100%-$80
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.