Dota2 · resolved market
Games Total: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x83d1627feb1e8effa5c070e10308d086908c8da4dd3a6817d374988ca78fe002
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,974
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,038
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,974 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x224f…514abacked Under | 53c | 733.82$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.82 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeef6…cd4cbacked Over | 46c | 711.62$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.28 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2141…0effbacked Over | 47c | 642.32$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.43 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Under | 54c | 520$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.8 | 377 | 45.9%173 W · 204 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Under | 50c | 298.22$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.09 | 1,154 | 47.7%550 W · 604 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked Under | 55c | 272.7$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0c…d43abacked Under | 53c | 210.33$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.41 | 212 | 53.8%114 W · 98 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15d1…ccfebacked Under | 53c | 199.99$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.99 | 546 | 59.7%326 W · 220 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7b…8404backed Over | 47c | 195.36$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.54 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12d3…42e4backed Over | 47c | 159.57$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.57 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 53c | 132$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.96 | 90 | 52.2%47 W · 43 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x829a…78fcbacked Over | 45c | 126.8$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.74 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98ba…4212backed Over | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -4.0wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e0…016abacked Under | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x74aa…2c3fbacked Under | 53c | 99.99$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.99 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -3.9wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f28…1edebacked Over | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 104 | 56.7%59 W · 45 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe803…b60ebacked Under | 54c | 85.76$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.31 | 86 | 55.8%48 W · 38 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc638…42cfbacked Over | 45c | 77.78$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.78 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1e…9514backed Over | 52c | 67.31$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.31 | 864 | 51.7%447 W · 417 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x419b…6ea1backed Over | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.83 | 224 | 53.1%119 W · 105 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x589a…8dc5backed Over | 45c | 60.71$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.39 | 204 | 42.2%86 W · 118 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc670…b781backed Under | 55c | 60.71$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.39 | 182 | 47.8%87 W · 95 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed Over | 45c | 55$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.25 | 438 | 60.5%265 W · 173 L | +44.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xed19…b6ffbacked Under | 57c | 53.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.47 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 68cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd22f…d0eebacked Over | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38e8…e69cbacked Over | 47c | 34.35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d35…b406backed Under | 53c | 25.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Games Total: O/U 2.5this page
- Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Liquid (BO3) - Esports World Cup SurvivalTeam Spirit won
- Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Liquid - Game 1 WinnerTeam Spirit won
- Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Liquid - Game 2 WinnerTeam Liquid won
- Game 1: Any Player Rampage?No won
- Game 2: Any Player Rampage?No won
- Game Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5)Team Liquid won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.