TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Game Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Team Liquidof Team Spirit, Team Liquid
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$262,339
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$290,623

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $262,339 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 114 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5dab…22e1backed Team Spirit44c191,677$85,258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85,258.442441.7%10 W · 14 L-1.9wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-22.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6d20…a165backed Team Liquid56c77,192$43,149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34,043.139733%32 W · 65 L-8.9wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-25.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3af1…d739backed Team Liquid55c21,723$11,844 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,878.5422644.7%101 W · 125 L-6.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf7c2…9b8dbacked Team Liquid56c21,655$12,141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,513.6325549%125 W · 130 L+9.4wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+7.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe548…a9febacked Team Liquid54c20,000$10,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,2007236.1%26 W · 46 L-5.5wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-19.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf438…9559backed Team Spirit43c11,518$4,953 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,952.641346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x79ae…9a4abacked Team Liquid55c11,435$6,289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,145.7523435.9%84 W · 150 L-7.2wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc463…9a2fbacked Team Liquid56c10,000$5,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,4004161%25 W · 16 L+4.5wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+28.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x559b…4959backed Team Liquid55c10,000$5,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,5008143.2%35 W · 46 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7645…3117backed Team Liquid59c4,000$2,360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,64015544.5%69 W · 86 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c52…1a59backed Team Liquid56c4,000$2,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,7606374.6%47 W · 16 L+9.6wins+0.15per pick59cpaid+26.5%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed Team Liquid60c3,061$1,837 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,224.4936248.6%176 W · 186 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5556…2759backed Team Liquid57c2,448$1,402 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,045.8729243.2%126 W · 166 L-14.4wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-19.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe16d…5e30backed Team Spirit42c2,375$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001,21057.1%691 W · 519 L+44.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Team Liquid54c2,352$1,270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,081.845139.2%177 W · 274 L+0.9wins0.00per pick39cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5038…6236backed Team Liquid57c2,262$1,289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$972.8226540.8%108 W · 157 L-13.3wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-16.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8adb…e4f6backed Team Spirit46c2,174$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0009556.8%54 W · 41 L0.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed Team Liquid59c2,000$1,180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82019742.1%83 W · 114 L-12.6wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-16%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xbfdd…e70ebacked Team Liquid59c1,990$1,174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$815.95250%26 W · 26 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9ff4…d731backed Team Liquid54c1,896$1,024 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$872.169744.3%43 W · 54 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3cec…d241backed Team Liquid59c1,695$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$694.921855.6%10 W · 8 L+1.8wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+7.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x94cb…64e3backed Team Liquid55c1,460$803 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65718830.9%58 W · 130 L-7.0wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-17.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaa5e…1468backed Team Spirit40c1,456$583 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$582.522157.1%12 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4cb0…57e0backed Team Liquid60c1,300$780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5203953.8%21 W · 18 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xff80…9b4dbacked Team Liquid59c1,253$739 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$513.7517444.8%78 W · 96 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c67…d062backed Team Spirit43c1,169$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001,13742.3%481 W · 656 L-27.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0659…d74dbacked Team Liquid54c1,152$620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$532.385851.3%440 W · 418 L+30.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Team Liquid58c1,147$667 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$480.429052.2%47 W · 43 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x41a5…75bbbacked Team Spirit41c1,117$458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$458.1761449.5%304 W · 310 L+9.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Team Liquid58c1,024$594 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$430.0812155.4%67 W · 54 L+7.9wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+134.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1b59…0ba0backed Team Liquid54c1,024$553 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$470.8327737.2%103 W · 174 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb07…e2ccbacked Team Liquid58c1,000$580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42010040%40 W · 60 L-6.0wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-6.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5537…f9c8backed Team Liquid55c999.98$545 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$454.9921353.5%114 W · 99 L-5.4wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-8.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Team Spirit43c790.39$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.871,16447.2%549 W · 615 L-29.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf07b…def2backed Team Spirit41c637.72$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.698247.6%39 W · 43 L+0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid+5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2f0…3206backed Team Spirit40c630$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2523545.7%16 W · 19 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+15.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3308…f04bbacked Team Liquid55c512.8$281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.3335850.6%181 W · 177 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-10.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x57b2…9da2backed Team Liquid57c508.77$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.7713941.7%58 W · 81 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked Team Liquid59c500$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20526846.6%125 W · 143 L-7.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7dc6…4b55backed Team Liquid60c500$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2001040%4 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-28.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7dd5…28f2backed Team Liquid59c500$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2051741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-33%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Team Liquid61c487.18$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.61,15447.7%550 W · 604 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x253e…84e4backed Team Liquid55c400$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1801741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-15.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe419…f6c4backed Team Spirit39c373.23$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.56757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-12.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7de3…d59bbacked Team Liquid55c349.98$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.4911733.3%39 W · 78 L-5.6wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0a7c…8964backed Team Liquid59c345.23$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.5541050.2%206 W · 204 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14ca…8f43backed Team Liquid55c320$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14410743.9%47 W · 60 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed Team Liquid57c300$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.7533445.2%151 W · 183 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70ef…e25dbacked Team Spirit48c280.52$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1353345.5%15 W · 18 L-2.6wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-18.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1ecc…1ce7backed Team Liquid58c274$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.369148.4%44 W · 47 L-6.1wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-20.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8b9d…9b0ebacked Team Spirit41c240$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.431126%81 W · 230 L-17.5wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-37.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbe59…0d2ebacked Team Liquid58c239.99$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.816243.2%70 W · 92 L-5.6wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x75f3…0e78backed Team Spirit42c235.71$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9941248.8%201 W · 211 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x31fd…e144backed Team Liquid54c235$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.113145%59 W · 72 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-9.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c9e…fbfdbacked Team Liquid54c224.19$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.1913148.1%63 W · 68 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-12.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee45…200abacked Team Spirit46c217.39$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10018046.1%83 W · 97 L-7.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5011…94b4backed Team Liquid50c216.03$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.0924636.6%90 W · 156 L-14.4wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-24.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfc70…8be9backed Team Liquid56c200$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8825354.5%138 W · 115 L+13.4wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfcfe…d420backed Team Liquid54c200$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9219756.9%112 W · 85 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xde30…3159backed Team Liquid58c189.29$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.2919547.2%92 W · 103 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-17.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb3f8…e0b1backed Team Liquid55c181.82$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.8226343%113 W · 150 L+13.9wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+15.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xca7c…e994backed Team Liquid59c180.84$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.1423149.4%114 W · 117 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e71…a8bdbacked Team Liquid60c166.67$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.67540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x12d3…42e4backed Team Spirit41c159.68$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.477847.4%37 W · 41 L+3.7wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8649…ba57backed Team Liquid54c142.59$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.598040%32 W · 48 L-3.6wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-10.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xeef9…8731backed Team Liquid59c135$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.3525956.8%147 W · 112 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x07f9…1513backed Team Spirit40c132.49$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5315147.7%72 W · 79 L+0.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x891a…f778backed Team Liquid50c125$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.52540%10 W · 15 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-25.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd95d…2ab5backed Team Spirit39c124.77$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.665048%24 W · 26 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-20.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7179…7d79backed Team Liquid45c109.82$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.2819053.2%101 W · 89 L+11.5wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+15.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9f1f…57c1backed Team Spirit46c108.91$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503228.1%9 W · 23 L-3.1wins-0.10per pick38cpaid-35.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xedf7…4003backed Team Liquid58c103.7$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.5529432.3%95 W · 199 L-19.2wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-22.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5d59…bdf3backed Team Spirit47c102.72$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.2867555%371 W · 304 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x021a…d3aebacked Team Liquid55c102.4$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.0814641.8%61 W · 85 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf836…e7b5backed Team Liquid54c102.36$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.0919156%107 W · 84 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce24…6239backed Team Spirit46c99.7$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.365832.8%19 W · 39 L+0.3wins0.00per pick32cpaid-21.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Team Liquid56c91.69$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.274549.3%367 W · 378 L0.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb5b…62c7backed Team Liquid56c89.29$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.297166.2%47 W · 24 L+7.5wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+18.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x312c…0f42backed Team Spirit46c86.96$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4037252.7%196 W · 176 L+1.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda24…737abacked Team Spirit37c81.22$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303441.2%14 W · 20 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-28%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a48…e3a8backed Team Spirit43c71$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.5325266.3%167 W · 85 L+20.5wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+15.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xedab…8926backed Team Spirit44c70$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3112055%66 W · 54 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-8.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc1b7…fd5ebacked Team Liquid55c68.64$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.893740.5%15 W · 22 L-2.8wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-21.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6b39…8593backed Team Liquid58c66.95$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.125360.4%32 W · 21 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4f87…f04ebacked Team Spirit80c63.9$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.1211250.9%57 W · 55 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-13%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x37bd…ed2abacked Team Spirit43c60$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.87763.6%49 W · 28 L+8.8wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+21%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2da3…f258backed Team Spirit53c58.96$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.4643860.5%265 W · 173 L+44.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+14.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xa8c3…ed81backed Team Spirit43c58.33$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.1wins0.00per pick56cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc670…b781backed Team Spirit45c53.35$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.8518247.8%87 W · 95 L+9.2wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+14.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1715…a049backed Team Liquid58c52.19$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223748.6%18 W · 19 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7d0e…4f01backed Team Liquid57c50$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.3825047.6%119 W · 131 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2892…e9d7backed Team Liquid58c48.02$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.9612556.8%71 W · 54 L+7.4wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+12.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7a85…ff94backed Team Spirit43c45.21$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4429352.9%155 W · 138 L+8.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc933…f519backed Team Liquid47c42.55$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.551030%3 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick44cpaid-39.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Team Liquid55c42.06$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.7232548.9%159 W · 166 L-7.5wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb0c…980abacked Team Spirit42c42.05$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.662240.9%9 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-23.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c36…e462backed Team Liquid56c40$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.614953.7%80 W · 69 L+0.7wins0.00per pick53cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8812…c41abacked Team Liquid55c38.88$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.53852.6%20 W · 18 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Team Liquid55c38$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.2466545.6%303 W · 362 L+13.5wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3404…10d2backed Team Spirit41c37.47$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.489248.9%45 W · 47 L+0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.