Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Falcons - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbff9bdf0acd10029fb1f477777cd9210fbb29a6052367fa3ed50fe8b9e184f25
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Auroraof Aurora, Team Falcons
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,361,948
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,732,740
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,361,948 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 372 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa5ea…d96abacked Team Falcons | 50c | 517,047$257,073 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257,073.12 | 287 | 48.8%140 W · 147 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf3…b218backed Aurora | 50c | 200,273$100,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100,113.83 | 161 | 47.2%76 W · 85 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3af1…d739backed Aurora | 51c | 46,246$23,497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,749.06 | 226 | 44.7%101 W · 125 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9eca…5a59backed Team Falcons | 52c | 43,998$22,879 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,879.09 | 400 | 51.5%206 W · 194 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Aurora | 50c | 38,795$19,397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,397.5 | 125 | 60%75 W · 50 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe16d…5e30backed Team Falcons | 53c | 37,862$19,917 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,917.12 | 1,210 | 57.1%691 W · 519 L | +44.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x913c…39b3backed Aurora | 56c | 30,335$17,045 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,289.7 | 714 | 54.5%389 W · 325 L | +55.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Aurora | 49c | 30,000$14,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,300 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87da…53d1backed Aurora | 52c | 23,586$12,216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,370.72 | 965 | 57.4%554 W · 411 L | +49.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0dcf…c556backed Aurora | 50c | 23,393$11,696 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,696.44 | 337 | 46.3%156 W · 181 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7600…4478backed Aurora | 51c | 21,901$11,187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,713.81 | 226 | 47.3%107 W · 119 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5038…6236backed Aurora | 49c | 20,795$10,108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,687.11 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc40…89cfbacked Aurora | 47c | 15,000$7,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,950 | 360 | 41.4%149 W · 211 L | -22.2wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xafd4…7e61backed Team Falcons | 48c | 14,842$7,174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,173.92 | 271 | 53.5%145 W · 126 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x540d…c8f9backed Team Falcons | 16c | 13,883$2,252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,251.67 | 388 | 55.2%214 W · 174 L | +29.8wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf070…ac55backed Team Falcons | 53c | 13,110$6,889 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,888.85 | 159 | 51.6%82 W · 77 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f5…f3b5backed Team Falcons | 51c | 13,000$6,630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,629.99 | 183 | 51.9%95 W · 88 L | -6.8wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0b…7aa5backed Aurora | 49c | 12,222$5,989 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,233.22 | 451 | 39.2%177 W · 274 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Aurora | 64c | 12,197$7,861 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,336.07 | 966 | 45.1%436 W · 530 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8705…edbabacked Aurora | 49c | 12,184$5,938 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,246.09 | 430 | 49.1%211 W · 219 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x183f…85e3backed Team Falcons | 49c | 12,003$5,919 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,919.5 | 158 | 48.1%76 W · 82 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc44f…d49fbacked Aurora | 50c | 11,107$5,553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,553.25 | 174 | 52.3%91 W · 83 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd06c…cdafbacked Aurora | 49c | 11,045$5,429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,615.6 | 1,186 | 43.2%512 W · 674 L | +42.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7645…3117backed Team Falcons | 47c | 10,754$5,025 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,024.68 | 155 | 44.5%69 W · 86 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef62…cf76backed Aurora | 57c | 10,705$6,105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,599.73 | 433 | 44.8%194 W · 239 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b0…329ebacked Aurora | 50c | 9,417$4,743 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,674.75 | 802 | 56%449 W · 353 L | +22.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2146…d41bbacked Aurora | 52c | 9,411$4,855 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,555.97 | 897 | 41.5%372 W · 525 L | +22.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x124e…6802backed Aurora | 55c | 9,310$5,122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,187.84 | 130 | 68.5%89 W · 41 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb635…bef0backed Aurora | 49c | 9,211$4,548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,662.81 | 303 | 36.6%111 W · 192 L | -18.4wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e7…6a52backed Aurora | 53c | 8,890$4,712 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,178.45 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3234…8b1abacked Aurora | 50c | 8,872$4,392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,479.99 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +3.2wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9031…554bbacked Aurora | 62c | 8,095$5,042 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,052.95 | 102 | 62.7%64 W · 38 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Aurora | 48c | 8,048$3,902 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,146.03 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Team Falcons | 14c | 7,525$1,048 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,048.31 | 1,521 | 37.9%576 W · 945 L | -57.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Team Falcons | 52c | 6,951$3,614 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,614.46 | 569 | 55.5%316 W · 253 L | +22.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…65ddbacked Team Falcons | 51c | 6,893$3,538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,538.02 | 345 | 44.3%153 W · 192 L | -15.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…9b8dbacked Aurora | 50c | 6,563$3,282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,281.51 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +9.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb35…b62abacked Aurora | 48c | 6,055$2,906 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,148.6 | 393 | 43.3%170 W · 223 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x182d…73e9backed Team Falcons | 48c | 5,905$2,834 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,834.36 | 293 | 48.5%142 W · 151 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7714…b814backed Team Falcons | 51c | 5,824$2,970 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,970.04 | 241 | 53.1%128 W · 113 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Aurora | 55c | 5,588$3,093 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,494.85 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c01…e7d0backed Aurora | 48c | 5,561$2,669 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,891.73 | 123 | 50.4%62 W · 61 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41bb…26e8backed Aurora | 55c | 5,343$2,938 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,404.19 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc156…f76cbacked Team Falcons | 9c | 5,109$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.48 | 165 | 47.9%79 W · 86 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb234…1c20backed Aurora | 47c | 5,000$2,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,650 | 290 | 42.1%122 W · 168 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x303b…53cabacked Team Falcons | 1c | 5,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3471…f17ebacked Aurora | 57c | 4,988$2,865 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,122.72 | 1,155 | 47.8%552 W · 603 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8523…1c9fbacked Team Falcons | 17c | 4,946$841 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$840.79 | 102 | 36.3%37 W · 65 L | -10.7wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8f…4d12backed Aurora | 61c | 4,156$2,543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,612.81 | 350 | 62.6%219 W · 131 L | +44.4wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ce…a57abacked Aurora | 52c | 4,017$2,069 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,948.46 | 1,202 | 59.3%713 W · 489 L | +64.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce08…510bbacked Team Falcons | 38c | 3,869$1,454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,454.45 | 359 | 51.3%184 W · 175 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9919…f261backed Aurora | 50c | 3,535$1,767 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,767.34 | 189 | 54%102 W · 87 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47bd…bc9dbacked Aurora | 54c | 3,281$1,772 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,509.13 | 410 | 55.6%228 W · 182 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802b…7d57backed Aurora | 51c | 3,269$1,667 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,601.8 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad72…4f5ebacked Aurora | 50c | 3,168$1,584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,584 | 368 | 51.6%190 W · 178 L | +25.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Aurora | 49c | 3,158$1,544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,614.42 | 894 | 40.3%360 W · 534 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b63…4acdbacked Aurora | 48c | 3,134$1,503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,631.05 | 162 | 48.8%79 W · 83 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdfb…980cbacked Aurora | 48c | 3,119$1,501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,618.47 | 175 | 46.9%82 W · 93 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfd…8d75backed Aurora | 47c | 3,053$1,449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,603.24 | 242 | 51.7%125 W · 117 L | +21.0wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe922…39b3backed Team Falcons | 49c | 3,037$1,488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,487.88 | 413 | 51.8%214 W · 199 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4667…cab0backed Team Falcons | 48c | 3,000$1,440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,440 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa88…85a5backed Aurora | 47c | 2,962$1,383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,579 | 696 | 44.5%310 W · 386 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b10…9659backed Team Falcons | 48c | 2,906$1,395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,395.07 | 494 | 55.1%272 W · 222 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked Aurora | 62c | 2,844$1,777 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,066.97 | 670 | 43.3%290 W · 380 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d39…6053backed Aurora | 57c | 2,820$1,614 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,205.98 | 1,036 | 47.2%489 W · 547 L | +15.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f76…aea6backed Aurora | 55c | 2,512$1,393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,118.35 | 183 | 56.8%104 W · 79 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13c7…11d9backed Team Falcons | 50c | 2,500$1,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,250 | 335 | 41.2%138 W · 197 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Aurora | 80c | 2,492$1,992 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.58 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x758f…dfb7backed Aurora | 72c | 2,270$1,643 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$627.38 | 346 | 67.9%235 W · 111 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cfc…4f30backed Aurora | 55c | 2,199$1,217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$981.89 | 377 | 45.4%171 W · 206 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf67d…c986backed Team Falcons | 28c | 2,165$598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$598.36 | 390 | 42.1%164 W · 226 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31a4…7afcbacked Aurora | 52c | 2,150$1,118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,032 | 953 | 42.2%402 W · 551 L | -20.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c4…0734backed Aurora | 50c | 2,088$1,044 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,044.17 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…77dcbacked Aurora | 60c | 2,066$1,236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$829.92 | 998 | 44.4%443 W · 555 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98a7…b766backed Aurora | 68c | 2,065$1,401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$664.07 | 602 | 51.2%308 W · 294 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Team Falcons | 46c | 2,021$928 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$927.88 | 324 | 41.7%135 W · 189 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5672…7312backed Aurora | 48c | 2,000$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,040 | 520 | 46.5%242 W · 278 L | +12.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c3…1f5fbacked Aurora | 70c | 2,000$1,390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$610 | 152 | 44.7%68 W · 84 L | -8.7wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x491d…f42bbacked Aurora | 62c | 2,000$1,240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$760 | 396 | 60.1%238 W · 158 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ab…f282backed Team Falcons | 50c | 1,968$984 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$984.17 | 197 | 42.1%83 W · 114 L | -12.6wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc646…e394backed Team Falcons | 46c | 1,935$890 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$890.19 | 376 | 55.1%207 W · 169 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa35c…a113backed Aurora | 51c | 1,903$971 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$932.54 | 617 | 45.7%282 W · 335 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Team Falcons | 25c | 1,879$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468.96 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4da…1772backed Aurora | 48c | 1,869$888 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$981.3 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x930e…38cfbacked Team Falcons | 2c | 1,836$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.09 | 370 | 18.9%70 W · 300 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -24%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9a…a06bbacked Team Falcons | 1c | 1,802$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.03 | 378 | 11.1%42 W · 336 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe361…ae44backed Aurora | 50c | 1,800$892 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$907.25 | 315 | 47.6%150 W · 165 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Aurora | 51c | 1,770$895 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$874.17 | 779 | 41.1%320 W · 459 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62a9…3bb6backed Aurora | 55c | 1,700$935 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$765 | 105 | 46.7%49 W · 56 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa7…003fbacked Team Falcons | 20c | 1,700$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.74 | 450 | 52.4%236 W · 214 L | +13.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf27…026fbacked Aurora | 66c | 1,669$1,106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.25 | 658 | 63.1%415 W · 243 L | +17.5wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1365…c82abacked Aurora | 50c | 1,610$805 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$805.1 | 614 | 56%344 W · 270 L | +13.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa97f…a818backed Aurora | 50c | 1,585$793 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$792.5 | 587 | 44%258 W · 329 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Aurora | 57c | 1,562$893 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$668.67 | 565 | 48%271 W · 294 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Aurora | 50c | 1,549$775 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$774.55 | 507 | 49.7%252 W · 255 L | +15.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3601…44fbbacked Aurora | 65c | 1,502$979 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522.59 | 169 | 54.4%92 W · 77 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a38…fee0backed Aurora | 49c | 1,500$735 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$765 | 603 | 49.9%301 W · 302 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x410d…d831backed Aurora | 49c | 1,485$728 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$757.35 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5ea…d07fbacked Team Falcons | 14c | 1,423$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.03 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked Team Falcons | 11c | 1,334$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.4 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Falcons - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Wallachia PlayoffsAurora won
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Falcons - Game 2 WinnerAurora won
- Game Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5)Aurora won
- Game Handicap: FLC (-1.5) vs Aurora (+1.5)Aurora won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.