TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Auroraof Aurora, Team Falcons
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$919,282
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,164,341

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $919,282 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 473 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe16d…5e30backed Team Falcons46c155,634$71,726 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71,726.421,21057.1%691 W · 519 L+44.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1a5c…a375backed Aurora52c128,197$66,467 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61,730.283438.2%13 W · 21 L-2.9wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-19.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Team Falcons48c101,578$48,757 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48,757.365549.1%27 W · 28 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0dcf…c556backed Aurora47c79,727$37,733 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41,993.4733746.3%156 W · 181 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad2b…f091backed Team Falcons53c37,251$19,726 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,725.621533.3%5 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-32.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2307…3934backed Aurora70c36,336$25,285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,050.9822848.2%110 W · 118 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-7.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3833…33d1backed Aurora49c31,294$15,472 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,821.4542650%213 W · 213 L+4.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3af1…d739backed Aurora47c27,956$13,139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,816.6822644.7%101 W · 125 L-6.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3b5c…126ebacked Team Falcons49c20,066$9,832 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,832.484940.8%20 W · 29 L-3.7wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-25.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xef27…381bbacked Aurora51c20,000$10,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,799.933154.8%17 W · 14 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc40…89cfbacked Team Falcons50c15,564$7,838 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,837.5436041.4%149 W · 211 L-22.2wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-12.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa0f9…cf34backed Aurora74c13,993$10,382 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,610.2718661.8%115 W · 71 L-6.9wins-0.04per pick66cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4574…273dbacked Aurora50c13,261$6,615 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,646.6812630.2%38 W · 88 L-13.5wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-31.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6b90…f361backed Team Falcons55c13,143$7,230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,229.934045%18 W · 22 L-4.1wins-0.10per pick55cpaid-17.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Team Falcons48c13,096$6,286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,286.2619847%93 W · 105 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa41c…fadebacked Aurora47c12,000$5,640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,359.9810641.5%44 W · 62 L-0.3wins0.00per pick42cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39d3…9ef0backed Team Falcons49c11,807$5,786 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,785.571741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-11.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf070…ac55backed Team Falcons48c11,111$5,333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,333.2615951.6%82 W · 77 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8479…40dfbacked Aurora68c10,785$7,288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,496.4310751.4%55 W · 52 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xda5f…2e9bbacked Aurora51c8,724$4,436 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,287.9811557.4%66 W · 49 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf2a…5ae1backed Team Falcons51c7,614$3,883 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,882.826354%34 W · 29 L+5.3wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+12.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0c6d…8371backed Aurora72c6,999$5,013 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,986.213100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+49.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2146…d41bbacked Aurora56c6,936$3,896 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,040.7689741.5%372 W · 525 L+22.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc6e…fa6fbacked Team Falcons51c6,095$3,108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,108.367058.6%41 W · 29 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6304…e570backed Aurora49c5,452$2,672 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,780.5527645.3%125 W · 151 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcdfb…980cbacked Team Falcons53c5,393$2,858 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,858.0617546.9%82 W · 93 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-9.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc949…fa93backed Team Falcons52c5,000$2,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,6008242.7%35 W · 47 L-8.2wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-22.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x80ba…2e78backed Team Falcons51c5,000$2,530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,529.7688539.7%351 W · 534 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed Aurora45c4,444$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,444.212536%45 W · 80 L-11.6wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-23.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe4da…1772backed Team Falcons51c4,337$2,223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,223.247047.1%33 W · 37 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick51cpaid+3.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5038…6236backed Team Falcons49c4,316$2,115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,114.9726540.8%108 W · 157 L-13.3wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-16.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc5f5…e459backed Aurora49c3,931$1,939 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,991.74250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x69d5…7767backed Team Falcons54c3,914$2,094 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,094.2420%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7dfd…8d75backed Aurora46c3,822$1,756 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,065.7624251.7%125 W · 117 L+21.0wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+15.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd4e3…d5f4backed Team Falcons51c3,806$1,941 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,941.216641.6%69 W · 97 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-12%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked Team Falcons51c3,794$1,945 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,945.357060%42 W · 28 L+4.2wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+3.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x30a9…dc10backed Team Falcons51c3,625$1,863 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,863.09333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-45.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeaf1…09b7backed Team Falcons51c3,394$1,746 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,745.624235.7%15 W · 27 L-5.0wins-0.12per pick48cpaid-33.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfd1b…e3b3backed Team Falcons30c3,193$958 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9589754.6%53 W · 44 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x085e…9aeabacked Aurora48c2,997$1,439 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,558.549650%48 W · 48 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9f9…bb8fbacked Team Falcons49c2,970$1,455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,455.34358.1%25 W · 18 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2fbb…7e44backed Team Falcons52c2,796$1,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,449.7115151%77 W · 74 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8705…edbabacked Aurora47c2,654$1,241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,412.843049.1%211 W · 219 L+15.8wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5672…7312backed Team Falcons40c2,500$996 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$996.4352046.5%242 W · 278 L+12.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51c7…98aabacked Team Falcons51c2,476$1,263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,262.7529160.1%175 W · 116 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea79…a9ccbacked Team Falcons51c2,462$1,256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,255.584650%23 W · 23 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb2bf…0b30backed Aurora49c2,385$1,169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,216.4475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+48.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Team Falcons29c2,372$676 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$676.092,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Team Falcons34c2,233$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$750.11,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa048…dd23backed Aurora47c2,200$1,034 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1661957.9%11 W · 8 L+3.5wins+0.18per pick40cpaid+51.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xba06…8024backed Team Falcons50c2,148$1,074 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,074.1715950.3%80 W · 79 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc2c4…0734backed Aurora48c2,061$989 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,071.83151.6%16 W · 15 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x31b9…150bbacked Aurora47c2,060$968 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,091.859254.1%320 W · 272 L+1.4wins0.00per pick54cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60c3…5947backed Aurora49c2,056$1,007 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,048.321926.3%5 W · 14 L-3.7wins-0.19per pick46cpaid-51.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Team Falcons31c2,030$635 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$634.61,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc463…9a2fbacked Aurora44c2,000$880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1204161%25 W · 16 L+4.5wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+28.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7eae…eab7backed Aurora49c2,000$980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0207100%7 W · 0 L+3.9wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+165.5%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x21b7…c861backed Team Falcons51c2,000$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0203327.3%9 W · 24 L-4.1wins-0.12per pick40cpaid-26.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9870…b9d3backed Team Falcons51c2,000$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,020850%4 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Aurora46c2,000$920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,079.9989440.3%360 W · 534 L+1.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Team Falcons30c1,990$605 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$605.021,15547.8%552 W · 603 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7032…0a8bbacked Aurora49c1,979$970 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,009.555251.6%285 W · 267 L+10.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa5ea…d96abacked Aurora72c1,938$1,395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$542.5828748.8%140 W · 147 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd68…b4d8backed Aurora46c1,933$891 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,042.212100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+117.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xec54…e8c1backed Team Falcons50c1,883$944 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$943.884751.1%24 W · 23 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8dd1…5a9bbacked Team Falcons52c1,868$971 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$971.220367%136 W · 67 L+14.8wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+11.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed Aurora47c1,750$823 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$927.581029.4%238 W · 572 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Aurora68c1,694$1,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$544.3196645.1%436 W · 530 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd6a…4119backed Aurora50c1,664$832 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$832.242157.1%12 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+53.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x788c…b7b6backed Aurora69c1,639$1,124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$515.06425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-63.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd60…3fcabacked Aurora47c1,625$764 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$861.022100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+94.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3763…345fbacked Aurora47c1,545$726 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$818.8542145.4%191 W · 230 L-11.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x115f…e217backed Aurora50c1,500$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7505747.4%27 W · 30 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x329c…2485backed Team Falcons49c1,469$725 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$725.014035%14 W · 26 L-4.1wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-28.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc44f…d49fbacked Team Falcons50c1,428$714 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$713.8517452.3%91 W · 83 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52e5…60babacked Team Falcons46c1,414$649 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$649.458959.6%53 W · 36 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3090…be73backed Aurora46c1,400$644 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7561650%8 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe647…2040backed Aurora52c1,400$728 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$671.982653.8%14 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf67b…9337backed Team Falcons53c1,396$740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$739.77250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-18%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5eab…d552backed Team Falcons28c1,362$381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381.356725.4%17 W · 50 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick28cpaid+4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x53e3…6d29backed Aurora49c1,335$654 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$680.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1038…ac4dbacked Aurora48c1,334$635 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$698.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+110%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x31ac…2a39backed Aurora48c1,312$630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$682.24757.4%27 W · 20 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+9.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf5ec…23bdbacked Aurora49c1,306$635 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$671.251566.7%10 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick60cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf01f…e8fbbacked Team Falcons52c1,302$676 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$675.643122.6%7 W · 24 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-21.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Team Falcons31c1,270$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.311,03647.2%489 W · 547 L+15.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x765f…1508backed Aurora58c1,267$729 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$537.5922363.2%141 W · 82 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8c2…eef4backed Aurora73c1,168$852 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$315.232479.2%19 W · 5 L+5.0wins+0.21per pick58cpaid+40.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xf98a…f376backed Team Falcons53c1,164$617 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$617.0920%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbb64…bfdcbacked Aurora48c1,155$554 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$600.6923653%125 W · 111 L+12.7wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x905c…de69backed Team Falcons51c1,100$561 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5611560%9 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+20.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x60e3…57b5backed Team Falcons51c1,100$561 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56134860.1%209 W · 139 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc19…0650backed Aurora48c1,100$528 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$571.871080%8 W · 2 L+2.6wins+0.26per pick54cpaid+83.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe84a…702dbacked Team Falcons53c1,093$579 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$579.1915949.7%79 W · 80 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-8.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2efa…8a01backed Aurora48c1,066$512 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$554.153943.6%17 W · 22 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed Team Falcons38c1,055$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$395.896033.3%20 W · 40 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-24.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfc05…cd85backed Aurora49c1,050$515 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$535.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x861f…e2bbbacked Aurora49c1,028$503 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$524.051100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked Aurora45c1,000$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5501163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+9.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3ac2…e183backed Aurora50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50024955.4%138 W · 111 L-6.1wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-11.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.