NHL · resolved market
KHL: Barys Astana vs. Severstal Cherepovets
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x65acff6cb746d4e69213e44bd8c2d2ad1297153ae529f394547d2a8b56bc50e2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Severstal Cherepovetsof Barys Astana, Severstal Cherepovets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,119
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,224
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,119 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbd1e…ff14backed Severstal Cherepovets | 60c | 1,456$873 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$582.24 | 480 | 50.6%243 W · 237 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Barys Astana | 40c | 867.98$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.83 | 1,636 | 50.4%825 W · 811 L | -20.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…5df2backed Severstal Cherepovets | 59c | 589.92$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.6 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Barys Astana | 41c | 527.72$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.84 | 519 | 49.5%257 W · 262 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Barys Astana | 40c | 487.43$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.57 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29b1…f737backed Barys Astana | 43c | 465.12$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 284 | 47.9%136 W · 148 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Barys Astana | 35c | 337.13$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Severstal Cherepovets | 60c | 249$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.6 | 204 | 47.1%96 W · 108 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Severstal Cherepovets | 60c | 242.41$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 865 | 49.1%425 W · 440 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Severstal Cherepovets | 65c | 207.04$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.45 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Barys Astana | 40c | 107$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.8 | 1,024 | 48.4%496 W · 528 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed Severstal Cherepovets | 58c | 86$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.12 | 99 | 44.4%44 W · 55 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7646…b2a1backed Barys Astana | 40c | 74.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Severstal Cherepovets | 65c | 67.12$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.49 | 1,028 | 53.2%547 W · 481 L | +21.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Barys Astana | 40c | 63.4$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.39 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Barys Astana | 40c | 60.6$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.24 | 530 | 50.6%268 W · 262 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15c5…4692backed Severstal Cherepovets | 57c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 279 | 47.3%132 W · 147 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40f8…327dbacked Barys Astana | 39c | 53.28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.78 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Severstal Cherepovets | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 924 | 44.5%411 W · 513 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07a6…5638backed Severstal Cherepovets | 69c | 44.17$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.66 | 91 | 68.1%62 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5769…7d11backed Severstal Cherepovets | 60c | 34.43$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.77 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73a2…3b68backed Severstal Cherepovets | 65c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 153 | 68%104 W · 49 L | +11.6wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.