South American Leagues · resolved market
CD Guadalajara vs. Club Puebla: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x65cc9e3952c637b5c40c969abf22227f04281f6970d7ce0bb5e37e8cf4edba1a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,476
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,724
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,476 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 17c | 215.73$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.43 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab0…0b80backed Under | 49c | 207.3$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x988a…6179backed Under | 49c | 207.08$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffde…2838backed Under | 49c | 206.08$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f92…f99dbacked Under | 49c | 202.46$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a0…77bdbacked Under | 49c | 199.24$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.63 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd1dc…9389backed Under | 49c | 199.23$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.62 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x914f…e477backed Under | 49c | 197.92$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.98 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cb…9113backed Under | 49c | 197.17$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.61 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89d6…6f37backed Under | 49c | 196.22$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe246…4471backed Under | 49c | 196$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e6…8431backed Under | 49c | 195.35$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a65…88e5backed Under | 49c | 193.99$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.06 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…5bb4backed Under | 49c | 190.22$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16b6…e145backed Under | 49c | 188.48$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ce…5893backed Under | 49c | 181.41$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.89 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 15c | 134$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 507 | 46.7%237 W · 270 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Under | 21c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Over | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CD Guadalajara vs. Club Puebla: O/U 1.5this page
- CD Guadalajara vs. Club Puebla: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- CD Guadalajara vs. Club Puebla: O/U 2.5Over won
- CD Guadalajara vs. Club Puebla: O/U 3.5Over won
- CD Guadalajara vs. Club Puebla: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: CD Guadalajara (-1.5)CD Guadalajara won
- Spread: CD Guadalajara (-2.5)CD Guadalajara won
- Spread: Club Puebla (-2.5)CD Guadalajara won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.