South American Leagues · resolved market
CD Guadalajara vs. Club Puebla: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb30f6dd822631cc961c92612d4f7a6b6507d3c91d607e0962d0a98b2749d395f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,708
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,156
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,708 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdb22…6478backed Over | 65c | 30,291$19,684 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,606.6 | 294 | 46.6%137 W · 157 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 35c | 17,049$5,967 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,967.29 | 1,296 | 43%557 W · 739 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 35c | 3,849$1,347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,347.15 | 507 | 46.7%237 W · 270 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 35c | 3,509$1,221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,220.75 | 5,762 | 45.4%2,614 W · 3,148 L | +94.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 35c | 1,984$698 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$698.11 | 3,407 | 51.3%1,749 W · 1,658 L | +21.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x351e…de8abacked Under | 36c | 1,450$516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$515.51 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 65c | 568.25$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.12 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 35c | 511.4$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.99 | 571 | 57.8%330 W · 241 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 35c | 511.4$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.99 | 477 | 56%267 W · 210 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Under | 35c | 511.4$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.99 | 412 | 56.6%233 W · 179 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb4…4576backed Under | 35c | 280.01$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 104 | 67.3%70 W · 34 L | +12.8wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf706…f685backed Over | 64c | 224.85$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.04 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 15c | 217.07$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.61 | 8,112 | 48.7%3,951 W · 4,161 L | +27.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 35c | 210$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.38 | 2,614 | 54.2%1,416 W · 1,198 L | +25.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…f36dbacked Under | 35c | 190.06$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.52 | 332 | 66.3%220 W · 112 L | +24.8wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6001…0457backed Under | 35c | 171.49$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.02 | 72 | 69.4%50 W · 22 L | +12.3wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddd…73b2backed Under | 35c | 153.83$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.84 | 164 | 59.8%98 W · 66 L | +7.8wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Over | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 85 | 54.1%46 W · 39 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Under | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Under | 41c | 97.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 221 | 45.7%101 W · 120 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2255…39a9backed Under | 35c | 85.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 34c | 76$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.15 | 2,173 | 43.6%948 W · 1,225 L | -55.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…5445backed Under | 35c | 75.34$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.37 | 172 | 61%105 W · 67 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 38c | 65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 1,070 | 47.4%507 W · 563 L | -46.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Over | 78c | 54.77$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed Under | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 79 | 43%34 W · 45 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Over | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffe…9150backed Under | 35c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 71 | 62%44 W · 27 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Under | 36c | 28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 318 | 27%86 W · 232 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CD Guadalajara vs. Club Puebla: O/U 2.5this page
- CD Guadalajara vs. Club Puebla: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- CD Guadalajara vs. Club Puebla: O/U 1.5Over won
- CD Guadalajara vs. Club Puebla: O/U 3.5Over won
- CD Guadalajara vs. Club Puebla: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: CD Guadalajara (-1.5)CD Guadalajara won
- Spread: CD Guadalajara (-2.5)CD Guadalajara won
- Spread: Club Puebla (-2.5)CD Guadalajara won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.