Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on March 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x65ce70af9076d25760358a7bbaaa6ac55a3e7978ac084bba76e448c975afca10
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,357
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,357 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 2c | 532.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 249 | 32.9%82 W · 167 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 6c | 297$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.81 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6580…6fa8backed Yes | 39c | 278.31$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.86 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ca7…ad36backed Yes | 38c | 262.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 11c | 230$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x888f…23f5backed Yes | 20c | 207.7$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.37 | 173 | 38.2%66 W · 107 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed Yes | 28c | 171.73$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.51 | 165 | 20.6%34 W · 131 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 18c | 164.45$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.27 | 353 | 23.2%82 W · 271 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 154.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.64 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 31c | 147.04$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23d4…ae0cbacked Yes | 50c | 137.35$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.3 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 59c | 129.96$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.69 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 9c | 120$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa16a…57d5backed Yes | 14c | 118.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x341b…4a23backed Yes | 43c | 110.35$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.73 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 28c | 101.85$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.85 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1348…7037backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 176 | 65.9%116 W · 60 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfcdc…57b3backed No | 69c | 99.99$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 105 | 77.1%81 W · 24 L | +11.1wins | +0.11per pick | 67cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 37c | 99.18$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.38 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 64c | 93.23$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.18 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb6c…ee14backed No | 50c | 93.04$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.92 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 55c | 80.6$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.56 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x263c…6114backed Yes | 37c | 80.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 151 | 33.8%51 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 42c | 76.4$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebee…7f68backed Yes | 39c | 74.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.3 | 95 | 29.5%28 W · 67 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 20c | 74.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 15c | 70.53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…476ebacked Yes | 49c | 70$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.6 | 163 | 36.2%59 W · 104 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b4…05babacked Yes | 47c | 67.19$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.69 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 39c | 63.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 63c | 62.62$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.01 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3000…0ccdbacked Yes | 46c | 59.14$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cc…3c16backed Yes | 48c | 53.79$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.88 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -3.3wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b9a…b06abacked Yes | 33c | 52.71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4da…dfb5backed Yes | 38c | 52.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 68 | 48.5%33 W · 35 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5db5…d9d8backed Yes | 38c | 51.54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.23per pick | 36cpaid | -59%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3906…f74bbacked No | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.24 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe57…4406backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -14%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0644…05debacked Yes | 39c | 48.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 44c | 45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 56c | 44.62$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.62 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32f0…c659backed Yes | 45c | 43.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedb…5e54backed Yes | 26c | 40.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 183 | 51.4%94 W · 89 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 54c | 38.02$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.43 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 35c | 34.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09c5…9e8abacked Yes | 45c | 34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b42…c94dbacked Yes | 38c | 31.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 28cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 42c | 26.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca5…9ababacked Yes | 52c | 26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 94 | 34%32 W · 62 L | -10.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x15ec…6373backed No | 57c | 26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.18 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 62c | 21.16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc744…955cbacked No | 74c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.87 | 59 | 71.2%42 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8267…f7b7backed No | 54c | 18.52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 116 | 56.9%66 W · 50 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 58c | 17.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.32 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8bab…72ddbacked No | 69c | 17.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.41 | 75 | 61.3%46 W · 29 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbed…6221backed No | 64c | 16.53$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on March 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 10°C on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 11°C on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on March 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 9°C on March 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.