TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on March 19?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$25,097

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,097 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc96c…b868backed No30c566.56$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.8629137.8%110 W · 181 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed No13c481.15$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.6935323.2%82 W · 271 L-16.4wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-54.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes72c408.88$293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.796,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbf14…5d95backed No5c355.67$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.4334617.9%62 W · 284 L+14.8wins+0.04per pick14cpaid-26.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6580…6fa8backed Yes37c286.07$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.897628.9%22 W · 54 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-4.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xce31…19c4backed Yes28c283.72$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.3616520.6%34 W · 131 L+0.3wins0.00per pick20cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x672f…13ccbacked Yes65c253.79$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.7133058.8%194 W · 136 L+10.8wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No9c237.81$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.497,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No50c199.18$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9612,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4b1…ab63backed Yes62c181.73$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.6638547.5%183 W · 202 L+16.9wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+24.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No30c166.67$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes73c155.7$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.4257659%340 W · 236 L-17.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a19…3c95backed No67c152$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.2942857%244 W · 184 L+8.9wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b11…2976backed Yes69c147.5$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.549941.7%208 W · 291 L-2.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x888f…23f5backed Yes65c138.86$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.2717338.2%66 W · 107 L+0.4wins0.00per pick38cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1348…7037backed Yes79c137.19$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.6417665.9%116 W · 60 L+12.7wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+18.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7cc8…2389backed No78c128.91$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10017156.7%97 W · 74 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No63c126.43$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.531,84263.5%1,170 W · 672 L-42.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes26c125$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.23,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a30…37a6backed Yes34c117.81$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.8140935%143 W · 266 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3681…4e48backed No64c116.27$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.631,37556%770 W · 605 L+25.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7a8…9f68backed Yes28c101.02$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.7934633.8%117 W · 229 L+17.3wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdd15…4f10backed Yes36c100$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$641100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+177.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3409…6839backed Yes34c95.97$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.12045%9 W · 11 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf306…2155backed Yes28c90$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.85733.3%19 W · 38 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+8.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No65c88.89$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.363,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes31c88$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.0717,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x38bb…2fcfbacked Yes46c87.19$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.19837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-37.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb822…1422backed No77c84.53$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.422969%20 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick65cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes29c82$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.222,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x263c…6114backed Yes37c80.89$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.8915133.8%51 W · 100 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No34c79.35$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.2812,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xae8f…c820backed Yes36c77.87$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.5263538.1%242 W · 393 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes32c76.43$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.333,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Yes75c72.64$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.2824932.9%82 W · 167 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-32.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4c4d…ee6abacked Yes77c72.46$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.467653.9%41 W · 35 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No64c63.33$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.273,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc8d…3257backed Yes18c60.98$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5020025%50 W · 150 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+9.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x292b…9427backed Yes52c60$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.14438.6%17 W · 27 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb0cc…3c16backed Yes27c55.74$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.742839.3%11 W · 17 L-3.3wins-0.12per pick51cpaid-21.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa4d0…ad4dbacked Yes40c54.91$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.914148.8%20 W · 21 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes55c54.23$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.221,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes38c53.07$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.0755942.6%238 W · 321 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x989a…b73fbacked Yes63c52.62$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.4718164.1%116 W · 65 L+29.3wins+0.16per pick48cpaid+37%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0xa16a…57d5backed Yes48c51.15$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.657647.4%36 W · 40 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x23d4…ae0cbacked Yes51c50.88$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.051233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-9.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3fa…cdb2backed Yes46c50$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278834.1%30 W · 58 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-24.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3619…4b14backed Yes50c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.25per pick42cpaid+27.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c49.98$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.992,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbed…6221backed No36c45.56$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.512948.3%14 W · 15 L-2.6wins-0.09per pick57cpaid-11.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4d4d…b3f4backed Yes39c45.07$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.49333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick22cpaid-14.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes25c45.02$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.71,54416.3%252 W · 1,292 L+21.9wins+0.01per pick15cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe5a1…3840backed Yes29c45$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.771,15327.1%312 W · 841 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa96a…1377backed No65c44$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.654143.6%236 W · 305 L-12.9wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-32.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc78d…7a18backed Yes46c43.63$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.63633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-20.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5aad…dc28backed Yes28c43.5$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.4467633.7%228 W · 448 L+33.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+16.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x108a…8159backed Yes31c41.12$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.5158732.9%193 W · 394 L+34.4wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+15.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x72d0…52f0backed Yes36c40$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.86845.6%31 W · 37 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdb6c…ee14backed No72c40$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.85058%29 W · 21 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+13.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x80f5…2b27backed Yes65c40$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1431442.4%133 W · 181 L+15.2wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4bbc…0083backed Yes31c40$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.451040%4 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick29cpaid+65.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a04…b254backed Yes49c39.7$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.0859818.4%110 W · 488 L-8.7wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-25.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6b2…4951backed Yes34c36.6$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.162934.5%10 W · 19 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick30cpaid-23.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c54…ae3fbacked Yes63c32.99$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.171947.4%9 W · 10 L-2.2wins-0.12per pick59cpaid-14.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3865…fcbebacked No78c32.18$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251,00260.9%610 W · 392 L-26.2wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf876…8975backed No60c31.72$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.895332.1%17 W · 36 L-5.1wins-0.10per pick42cpaid-40.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd2d6…b8e3backed Yes69c30$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.314251.4%73 W · 69 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes39c30$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.374338.2%284 W · 459 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x92f4…63d9backed Yes39c30$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.38130.9%25 W · 56 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc73d…565abacked Yes67c29.65$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.645139.2%20 W · 31 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-11.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5aa4…fc3dbacked No67c25.32$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.9627756%155 W · 122 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb074…9fb3backed Yes72c25.09$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.0422454.5%122 W · 102 L+13.2wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+14.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4ce0…d57fbacked Yes40c25$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15475%3 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.34per pick41cpaid+73.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x73d0…6972backed Yes59c21.44$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.7922959.8%137 W · 92 L+6.7wins+0.03per pick57cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x258d…4fd6backed No75c20.09$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153625%9 W · 27 L-6.5wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-65.5%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xa864…abf3backed Yes62c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.6988.9%8 W · 1 L+2.1wins+0.23per pick66cpaid+45.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes74c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.260851.2%311 W · 297 L-24.0wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-7.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf7fe…1e42backed No63c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.634457%196 W · 148 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb1a2…f366backed Yes61c18.39$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.177321.9%16 W · 57 L+0.1wins0.00per pick22cpaid-36.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcee9…a6c1backed Yes80c15.57$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.111926.3%5 W · 14 L-4.9wins-0.26per pick52cpaid-58.2%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xbc52…6ea2backed No68c15.5$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.542138.1%8 W · 13 L-4.0wins-0.19per pick57cpaid-43.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8165…97b8backed Yes76c15.5$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.7218550.3%93 W · 92 L-5.8wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x194c…88c5backed No70c14.86$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4650%3 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.24per pick74cpaid-33%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x91e8…5a81backed Yes79c14$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.94825%2 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-68.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.