Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on March 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8bfeabf7861e326122435823eba6e355a067c6cf5753069ef1247682cf4c8ce7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,950
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,950 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc96c…b868backed Yes | 9c | 1,677$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.05 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea2…e97fbacked Yes | 11c | 677.39$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.32 | 350 | 18%63 W · 287 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 6c | 544.49$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.71 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed Yes | 6c | 446.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.31 | 165 | 20.6%34 W · 131 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 15c | 409$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.21 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 5c | 379.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 8c | 375.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 11c | 285.69$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 99 | 13.1%13 W · 86 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46b3…d3debacked Yes | 6c | 254.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 244 | 14.3%35 W · 209 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 5c | 252.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6b2…4951backed Yes | 6c | 203.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…87a9backed Yes | 6c | 201.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 464 | 23.5%109 W · 355 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 8c | 199.58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.63 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 7c | 178.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 11c | 152.27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 18c | 137.11$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 15c | 133.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed No | 79c | 111.32$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.26 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 14c | 110.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 249 | 32.9%82 W · 167 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x848d…efbebacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3409…6839backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3fa…cdb2backed Yes | 18c | 99.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 88 | 34.1%30 W · 58 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf29d…2d25backed Yes | 16c | 99.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38bb…2fcfbacked Yes | 21c | 94.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 13c | 88.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4d4d…b3f4backed Yes | 16c | 85.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x263c…6114backed Yes | 20c | 81.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 151 | 33.8%51 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7233…ff3ebacked Yes | 17c | 65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3619…4b14backed Yes | 21c | 59.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdfb…f641backed No | 79c | 47.18$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 91 | 64.8%59 W · 32 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6af…fc2fbacked No | 79c | 38.09$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.09 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 78c | 35.81$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 343 | 69.4%238 W · 105 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on March 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 10°C on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 11°C on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on March 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 9°C on March 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.