Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on July 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x662b507455f5e6a540a80568fa662aad77ee1230e05057fc9ad14b993e1178d8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,787
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,255
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,787 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 57c | 450$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.44 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 43c | 389.91$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.83 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 47c | 342.92$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.42 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 32c | 337.32$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.01 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 55c | 336.51$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.52 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 47c | 299.71$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.19 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 26c | 283.06$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.04 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 51c | 192.45$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.62 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 60c | 170.01$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.5 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 55c | 162.77$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.57 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…2013backed Yes | 39c | 134.08$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.28 | 314 | 54.1%170 W · 144 L | +31.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 74c | 129$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.52 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 34c | 125.36$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.01 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 52c | 122.68$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.95 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b31…8ee2backed No | 76c | 100$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3339…1db6backed Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 50c | 94$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.44 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 47c | 93.22$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc85b…ba1bbacked No | 71c | 83$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.23 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 52c | 82$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.64 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 40c | 80$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.1 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 58c | 75.68$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.11 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 42c | 72.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.24 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 60c | 72.05$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.23 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 34c | 56.79$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.69 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 67c | 54.08$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.47 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…e0c1backed No | 56c | 53.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 111 | 63.1%70 W · 41 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +20%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8177…e5d4backed No | 75c | 53$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.74 | 89 | 76.4%68 W · 21 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 71cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 73c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 35c | 46$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.67 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 45c | 43.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.18 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 52c | 43.87$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.05 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 35c | 43.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.25 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 66c | 42.63$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.27 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 51c | 42.51$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.68 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…3017backed No | 74c | 42$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.08 | 152 | 58.6%89 W · 63 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 61c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 49c | 33.58$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.13 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes | 42c | 32.6$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.98 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…c61bbacked No | 54c | 27.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23e8…9373backed No | 75c | 27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.22 | 56 | 75%42 W · 14 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 52c | 25.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 54c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed0…1258backed No | 57c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 55c | 24.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 62c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 64c | 19.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on July 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 100-101°F on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 96-97°F on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 98-99°F on July 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.