TailMyPicks
Market

Tennis · resolved market

ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Rebecca Munk Mortensen vs Ariana Geerlings

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Ariana Geerlingsof Rebecca Munk Mortensen, Ariana Geerlings
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$52,323
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$50,570

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,323 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2978…b511backed Rebecca Munk Mortensen15c11,680$1,731 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,730.644032.7%144 W · 296 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-15.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc07d…b1dfbacked Rebecca Munk Mortensen11c4,877$554 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$554.022,38355.6%1,326 W · 1,057 L+49.3wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Rebecca Munk Mortensen17c2,187$372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$371.794,97538.6%1,922 W · 3,053 L-19.9wins0.00per pick39cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Rebecca Munk Mortensen20c1,775$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35536434.3%125 W · 239 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick33cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Rebecca Munk Mortensen25c1,497$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$374.758,24145.5%3,746 W · 4,495 L+166.2wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Rebecca Munk Mortensen20c1,351$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.168,70242.6%3,708 W · 4,994 L-165.1wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x26be…805fbacked Ariana Geerlings74c1,342$999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$342.1737849.2%186 W · 192 L+1.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd8fa…581fbacked Ariana Geerlings80c1,130$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.9819540%78 W · 117 L-6.9wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc87…ea3bbacked Rebecca Munk Mortensen21c1,000$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21033346.2%154 W · 179 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+4.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x224f…514abacked Ariana Geerlings79c1,000$790 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21029250.7%148 W · 144 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid+1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x940c…6f91backed Ariana Geerlings76c806.5$610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.59657.3%55 W · 41 L+8.1wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+61.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1621…572cbacked Rebecca Munk Mortensen14c544.06$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.3547852.1%249 W · 229 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c8c…01c9backed Rebecca Munk Mortensen15c300$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$458446.4%39 W · 45 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Rebecca Munk Mortensen19c276.98$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.986,57446.2%3,037 W · 3,537 L-45.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-12.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Ariana Geerlings76c271.51$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.69,03836.1%3,266 W · 5,772 L-196.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-27%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9941…e21ebacked Rebecca Munk Mortensen21c238.1$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503036.7%11 W · 19 L+1.8wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+23.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb4c0…22ebbacked Rebecca Munk Mortensen5c200$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.640527.2%110 W · 295 L-17.2wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-29.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x162d…8944backed Rebecca Munk Mortensen5c200$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1013134.4%45 W · 86 L+13.5wins+0.10per pick24cpaid+25.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xdef1…e893backed Rebecca Munk Mortensen18c196.47$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.523432.4%11 W · 23 L-4.2wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-39%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x789c…0d10backed Rebecca Munk Mortensen29c166.07$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.1629149.5%144 W · 147 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3309…209dbacked Rebecca Munk Mortensen24c160.29$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.371947.4%9 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-26.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6e61…2f1bbacked Ariana Geerlings75c160$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4029148.5%141 W · 150 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd692…8b9abacked Rebecca Munk Mortensen16c150.59$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.0931035.2%109 W · 201 L-11.2wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-22.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x912f…b25bbacked Rebecca Munk Mortensen12c141$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.9211141.4%46 W · 65 L-6.2wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-10.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x23db…cf1cbacked Rebecca Munk Mortensen19c110.67$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.29540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick30cpaid-19.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0977…53ccbacked Rebecca Munk Mortensen24c100.42$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2422547.1%106 W · 119 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Rebecca Munk Mortensen18c99.99$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.981,76645.9%810 W · 956 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-20.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ca9…424abacked Rebecca Munk Mortensen20c97.18$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.161,87853.2%1,000 W · 878 L+30.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x66ac…5e75backed Ariana Geerlings75c66.67$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.6795655.9%534 W · 422 L+19.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9455…7defbacked Ariana Geerlings75c66.67$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.671,00049.8%498 W · 502 L+19.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e69…553abacked Ariana Geerlings76c65.79$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.7996255.8%537 W · 425 L+21.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe24e…eecebacked Ariana Geerlings77c64.94$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.9489754.6%490 W · 407 L+8.7wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe022…7d0fbacked Rebecca Munk Mortensen20c60$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1216833.9%57 W · 111 L-6.3wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-11.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Ariana Geerlings75c50$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.61,62949%798 W · 831 L-51.6wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-18.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5061…4b02backed Ariana Geerlings74c40.54$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.546663.6%42 W · 24 L+9.9wins+0.15per pick49cpaid+46.6%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x88a9…e618backed Ariana Geerlings75c40$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1096755%532 W · 435 L+17.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4b0…d8dbbacked Ariana Geerlings76c39.47$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.4753356.7%302 W · 231 L+15.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5663…f2e5backed Ariana Geerlings80c29.41$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.8934957.9%202 W · 147 L+16.5wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+8.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1b0f…b7aebacked Ariana Geerlings80c24$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.841436.7%152 W · 262 L-1.3wins0.00per pick37cpaid+6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x489d…f6e3backed Ariana Geerlings79c16.24$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.381,83253%971 W · 861 L-45.6wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.