Tennis · resolved market
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Rebecca Munk Mortensen vs Ariana Geerlings
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6651b9c5d9d190fd090227ab0a8b289de8786a8381f0d4797b69ba186529a9a9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ariana Geerlingsof Rebecca Munk Mortensen, Ariana Geerlings
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,323
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,570
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,323 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2978…b511backed Rebecca Munk Mortensen | 15c | 11,680$1,731 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,730.6 | 440 | 32.7%144 W · 296 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…b1dfbacked Rebecca Munk Mortensen | 11c | 4,877$554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$554.02 | 2,383 | 55.6%1,326 W · 1,057 L | +49.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Rebecca Munk Mortensen | 17c | 2,187$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.79 | 4,975 | 38.6%1,922 W · 3,053 L | -19.9wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Rebecca Munk Mortensen | 20c | 1,775$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355 | 364 | 34.3%125 W · 239 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Rebecca Munk Mortensen | 25c | 1,497$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.75 | 8,241 | 45.5%3,746 W · 4,495 L | +166.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Rebecca Munk Mortensen | 20c | 1,351$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.16 | 8,702 | 42.6%3,708 W · 4,994 L | -165.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26be…805fbacked Ariana Geerlings | 74c | 1,342$999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.17 | 378 | 49.2%186 W · 192 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fa…581fbacked Ariana Geerlings | 80c | 1,130$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.98 | 195 | 40%78 W · 117 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…ea3bbacked Rebecca Munk Mortensen | 21c | 1,000$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 333 | 46.2%154 W · 179 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Ariana Geerlings | 79c | 1,000$790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 292 | 50.7%148 W · 144 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x940c…6f91backed Ariana Geerlings | 76c | 806.5$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.5 | 96 | 57.3%55 W · 41 L | +8.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +61.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1621…572cbacked Rebecca Munk Mortensen | 14c | 544.06$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.35 | 478 | 52.1%249 W · 229 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8c…01c9backed Rebecca Munk Mortensen | 15c | 300$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Rebecca Munk Mortensen | 19c | 276.98$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.98 | 6,574 | 46.2%3,037 W · 3,537 L | -45.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Ariana Geerlings | 76c | 271.51$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.6 | 9,038 | 36.1%3,266 W · 5,772 L | -196.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9941…e21ebacked Rebecca Munk Mortensen | 21c | 238.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c0…22ebbacked Rebecca Munk Mortensen | 5c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 405 | 27.2%110 W · 295 L | -17.2wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x162d…8944backed Rebecca Munk Mortensen | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 131 | 34.4%45 W · 86 L | +13.5wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdef1…e893backed Rebecca Munk Mortensen | 18c | 196.47$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.52 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -4.2wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -39%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Rebecca Munk Mortensen | 29c | 166.07$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.16 | 291 | 49.5%144 W · 147 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3309…209dbacked Rebecca Munk Mortensen | 24c | 160.29$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.37 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e61…2f1bbacked Ariana Geerlings | 75c | 160$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 291 | 48.5%141 W · 150 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd692…8b9abacked Rebecca Munk Mortensen | 16c | 150.59$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.09 | 310 | 35.2%109 W · 201 L | -11.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x912f…b25bbacked Rebecca Munk Mortensen | 12c | 141$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 111 | 41.4%46 W · 65 L | -6.2wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23db…cf1cbacked Rebecca Munk Mortensen | 19c | 110.67$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.29 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0977…53ccbacked Rebecca Munk Mortensen | 24c | 100.42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 225 | 47.1%106 W · 119 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Rebecca Munk Mortensen | 18c | 99.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 1,766 | 45.9%810 W · 956 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Rebecca Munk Mortensen | 20c | 97.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 1,878 | 53.2%1,000 W · 878 L | +30.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66ac…5e75backed Ariana Geerlings | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 956 | 55.9%534 W · 422 L | +19.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9455…7defbacked Ariana Geerlings | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 1,000 | 49.8%498 W · 502 L | +19.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e69…553abacked Ariana Geerlings | 76c | 65.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 962 | 55.8%537 W · 425 L | +21.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe24e…eecebacked Ariana Geerlings | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 897 | 54.6%490 W · 407 L | +8.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe022…7d0fbacked Rebecca Munk Mortensen | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 168 | 33.9%57 W · 111 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Ariana Geerlings | 75c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 1,629 | 49%798 W · 831 L | -51.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5061…4b02backed Ariana Geerlings | 74c | 40.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 66 | 63.6%42 W · 24 L | +9.9wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x88a9…e618backed Ariana Geerlings | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 967 | 55%532 W · 435 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b0…d8dbbacked Ariana Geerlings | 76c | 39.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 533 | 56.7%302 W · 231 L | +15.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5663…f2e5backed Ariana Geerlings | 80c | 29.41$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 349 | 57.9%202 W · 147 L | +16.5wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Ariana Geerlings | 80c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 414 | 36.7%152 W · 262 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed Ariana Geerlings | 79c | 16.24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.38 | 1,832 | 53%971 W · 861 L | -45.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Rebecca Munk Mortensen vs Ariana Geerlingsthis page
- Set Handicap: Geerlings (-1.5) vs Mortensen (+1.5)Geerlings won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.