Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x665f2e49c94790ef9c774b6664fd0b6f64118d56831c1960772be7df02e71e83
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,576
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,627
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,576 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 17c | 4,208$729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$729.07 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 1c | 4,163$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,117.64 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 15c | 2,191$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.56 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 1,800$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,778.4 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 3c | 859.27$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$837.24 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecb2…a30cbacked No | 5c | 562.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.81 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x726e…aafbbacked Yes | 73c | 500$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.6 | 232 | 69%160 W · 72 L | +23.7wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcbce…507dbacked No | 65c | 483$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.79 | 78 | 32.1%25 W · 53 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 35c | 467.79$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.4 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 9c | 425.75$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.81 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 34c | 325.98$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.83 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 7c | 284.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.35 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 24c | 272.74$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.47 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 31c | 258.28$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.95 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa96…99a5backed Yes | 69c | 241.74$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.42 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 73c | 234.97$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.27 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 28c | 229.67$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.73 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 19c | 170.77$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.39 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xae4c…d114backed Yes | 28c | 163.83$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.68 | 191 | 48.7%93 W · 98 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Yes | 9c | 150.08$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.84 | 299 | 41.1%123 W · 176 L | +20.8wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3d…d3e9backed Yes | 77c | 140.74$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.82 | 79 | 68.4%54 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 67c | 107.76$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.35 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 71c | 105.5$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.38 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0d…3e25backed Yes | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.7 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -5.5wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7da5…0865backed Yes | 72c | 98.18$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.22 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 71c | 96.25$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8db6…8679backed Yes | 74c | 92.91$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.22 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +100.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 78c | 89.69$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.59 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1da4…e65cbacked Yes | 59c | 83.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.86 | 130 | 50.8%66 W · 64 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 30c | 80.64$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.45 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 53c | 75.01$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.01 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 66c | 74$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.23 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6780…41ccbacked Yes | 71c | 68.74$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.04 | 270 | 51.1%138 W · 132 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb5ec…d641backed No | 37c | 63.15$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed Yes | 69c | 51.9$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.33 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d2…0ecfbacked Yes | 27c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.55 | 205 | 46.8%96 W · 109 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 68c | 48.85$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 35c | 47.44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked Yes | 63c | 43.39$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.22 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5239…4134backed Yes | 73c | 37.4$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 84 | 66.7%56 W · 28 L | +9.7wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +36%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x65eb…2c83backed Yes | 76c | 36.71$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 51c | 31.25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97ad…9a0dbacked Yes | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.72 | 234 | 63.7%149 W · 85 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.93 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96d5…7227backed Yes | 70c | 28.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.39 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…e43ebacked No | 76c | 27.16$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.63 | 180 | 60%108 W · 72 L | -21.2wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes | 78c | 25.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.59 | 206 | 62.1%128 W · 78 L | -14.0wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 60c | 23.26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.42 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9791…a14abacked Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 194 | 61.9%120 W · 74 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6a…4614backed Yes | 74c | 16.01$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -11.5wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.49 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 25°C or below on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 26°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 27°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 28°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C or higher on June 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.