Mls · resolved market
St. Louis City SC vs. New England Revolution: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x666d3a977bdb2db7ba680a0b040fac62ebf567e9d212199f812c02bf13d6c55d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,919
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,919 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 80c | 1,298$1,033 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.15 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Over | 14c | 992.39$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.93 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over | 17c | 804.49$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137 | 190 | 44.7%85 W · 105 L | +9.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 24c | 653.36$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154 | 395 | 67.1%265 W · 130 L | +60.8wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 65c | 499.59$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.96 | 288 | 51.4%148 W · 140 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 36c | 322.01$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.88 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 20c | 240.87$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.17 | 557 | 50.1%279 W · 278 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Over | 23c | 222.22$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.11 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 19c | 205.88$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.4 | 685 | 50.5%346 W · 339 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe08c…e03cbacked Over | 48c | 199.99$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05e0…e2cbbacked Under | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +124.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf715…bbf0backed Over | 15c | 161.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 24cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Under | 77c | 110.14$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.33 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 75c | 110.08$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.05 | 461 | 56.2%259 W · 202 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1160…b054backed Over | 25c | 110$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 27c | 109.01$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.16 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 153 | 41.2%63 W · 90 L | -14.0wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -24%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 19c | 88.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x741c…bf80backed Over | 16c | 63.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Under | 77c | 51.3$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbefe…2d45backed Over | 44c | 42.54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3123…b44dbacked Under | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.15per pick | 58cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb580…9b95backed Over | 46c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 73c | 24.19$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5424…7a1bbacked Under | 74c | 16.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Under | 67c | 15.15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 483 | 44.9%217 W · 266 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- St. Louis City SC vs. New England Revolution: O/U 4.5this page
- Spread: New England Revolution (-1.5)St. Louis City SC won
- Spread: St. Louis City SC (-1.5)St. Louis City SC won
- St. Louis City SC vs. New England Revolution: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- St. Louis City SC vs. New England Revolution: O/U 1.5Over won
- St. Louis City SC vs. New England Revolution: O/U 2.5Over won
- St. Louis City SC vs. New England Revolution: O/U 3.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.