NHL · resolved market

Spread: Lightning (-1.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6670756e3b6d4fdcf9201ff9ee544eec601fdb3a6ff9406b87780aa7a7485fa1

Rebuilt 18 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Lightningof Lightning, Wild
Resolved: Mar 25, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $4,861

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,861 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NHL
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x7705…a442backed Lightning	38c	1,391$532 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$859.35	572	38.1%218 W · 354 L	-4.2wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Wild	73c	440.93$320 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$320.17	3,704	50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L	+105.5wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	-4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Wild	61c	399.13$243 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$243.47	2,112	42.9%907 W · 1,205 L	-10.1wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xacae…6798backed Wild	62c	357.32$222 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$221.54	38	50%19 W · 19 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked Wild	62c	355.4$220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$220.35	115	43.5%50 W · 65 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x2160…bcb3backed Lightning	38c	264.07$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$164.07	403	40.9%165 W · 238 L	-4.9wins	-0.01per pick	42cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Wild	62c	208$129 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$128.96	1,190	50.7%603 W · 587 L	+13.3wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea78…a74ebacked Lightning	39c	183.14$71 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$111.8	253	37.9%96 W · 157 L	-5.6wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Wild	63c	168.84$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105.94	1,530	51.7%791 W · 739 L	+22.5wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c58…e330backed Lightning	76c	166.93$127 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.13	422	54.3%229 W · 193 L	+18.3wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+5.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Lightning	29c	160.03$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$113.62	2,664	51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L	+58.0wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc23…8283backed Wild	63c	158.73$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	252	58.3%147 W · 105 L	+5.1wins	+0.02per pick	56cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e01…7ef0backed Wild	64c	138.88$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.79	76	35.5%27 W · 49 L	-12.1wins	-0.16per pick	51cpaid	-33%equal weight	37-0.12 edge/pick
0xab41…c453backed Wild	71c	134.39$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95.09	1,431	58.3%834 W · 597 L	+81.0wins	+0.06per pick	53cpaid	+7.6%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd0e7…b14fbacked Wild	62c	116$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.92	366	48.6%178 W · 188 L	-14.5wins	-0.04per pick	53cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe96b…eb54backed Lightning	26c	112.73$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$83.42	46	32.6%15 W · 31 L	+2.3wins	+0.05per pick	28cpaid	+17.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Lightning	37c	100$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$63	868	52.4%455 W · 413 L	+7.0wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0774…99febacked Lightning	27c	100$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$73	37	40.5%15 W · 22 L	-2.8wins	-0.07per pick	48cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xac1a…813ebacked Lightning	37c	93.33$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$58.8	108	46.3%50 W · 58 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x714d…6e05backed Lightning	44c	84.14$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$47.27	59	50.8%30 W · 29 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Lightning	36c	76.57$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48.98	1,555	51.4%800 W · 755 L	+12.2wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe31…6573backed Lightning	25c	68.2$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51.45	210	42.4%89 W · 121 L	+6.6wins	+0.03per pick	39cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe2e1…c20abacked Wild	56c	60$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.6	183	44.8%82 W · 101 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1480…6e8dbacked Wild	62c	58$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.96	57	57.9%33 W · 24 L	+2.5wins	+0.04per pick	53cpaid	+11%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8fb4…d080backed Wild	65c	57.36$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.28	101	48.5%49 W · 52 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Lightning	35c	57.36$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.28	831	49.5%411 W · 420 L	-9.2wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f2d…fbf5backed Wild	47c	50$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.6	272	50%136 W · 136 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x299f…2140backed Lightning	36c	40.66$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.02	388	49.5%192 W · 196 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf0bb…049fbacked Wild	73c	37.32$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.42	149	63.8%95 W · 54 L	+5.6wins	+0.04per pick	60cpaid	+7.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe722…57c5backed Wild	63c	33.01$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.8	199	51.8%103 W · 96 L	-9.8wins	-0.05per pick	57cpaid	-11.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfc53…6bd3backed Wild	65c	30.77$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	540	49.4%267 W · 273 L	-2.2wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5df5…c44cbacked Wild	63c	27.85$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.54	498	51%254 W · 244 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Wild	58c	25$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.4	1,384	47.1%652 W · 732 L	+25.6wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Wild	61c	22$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.42	860	49.2%423 W · 437 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Wild	62c	21.5$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.33	381	47.2%180 W · 201 L	+0.9wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8dec…60c2backed Wild	64c	18.39$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.77	63	41.3%26 W · 37 L	-4.9wins	-0.08per pick	49cpaid	-20.8%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Wild	62c	18$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.11	920	49.7%457 W · 463 L	+14.0wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0576…6232backed Wild	62c	17.42$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.8	456	51.5%235 W · 221 L	+4.4wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Lightning (-1.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event